US Macro Outlook: Growth set to falter?

Date: Tuesday 31 October 2023

The economy has remained resilient through the end of the third quarter, but we expect a combination of high interest rates, tighter lending conditions and more restrictive fiscal policy will push the economy into a sharp slowdown over the coming quarters. A prolonged period of below-trend growth will help to lower inflation back closer to the Fed’s 2% target. But with the Fed approaching its inflation target from above, officials are likely to take an extremely cautious approach to lowering interest rates next year and beyond.

Michael Pearce

Deputy Chief US Economist

+1 (347) 756 6500

Michael Pearce

Deputy Chief US Economist

New York, United States

Michael Pearce is the Deputy Chief US Economist based in New York City, sharing responsibility for forecasting the US economy and monetary policy. He has a particular focus on the US consumer and inflation. Before joining Oxford Economics, Michael worked for the Treasury in the UK, and was a senior member of the US economics team at Capital Economics for more than a decade, and he lived and worked in the UK, US, and Switzerland during that time. He has a masters degree in economic history from the London School of Economics, and a bachelors degree in economics from University College London.

Nancy Vanden Houten

Lead Economist

+1 646 668 5799

Private: Nancy Vanden Houten

Lead Economist

New York, United States

Nancy is a Lead Economist for the US Macro Team at Oxford Economics. She focuses on the impact of US fiscal policy on the economy and treasury debt market. Nancy also covers the US housing and mortgage markets and tends in household wealth and income. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Nancy worked at Stone and McCarthy research Associates and at Merrill Lynch.

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