US Macro Outlook: Growth set to falter?
Date: Tuesday 31 October 2023
The economy has remained resilient through the end of the third quarter, but we expect a combination of high interest rates, tighter lending conditions and more restrictive fiscal policy will push the economy into a sharp slowdown over the coming quarters. A prolonged period of below-trend growth will help to lower inflation back closer to the Fed’s 2% target. But with the Fed approaching its inflation target from above, officials are likely to take an extremely cautious approach to lowering interest rates next year and beyond.
Michael Pearce
Lead US Economist
+1 (347) 756 6500
Michael Pearce
Lead US Economist
New York, United States
Michael joined Oxford Economics in 2023 as Lead US Economist based in New York City. He has over a decade of experience analyzing the US and global economies, previously at Capital Economics, and spent a year working in the UK Treasury.
Michael has lived and worked in the US, UK and Switzerland. He has degrees in Economics and Economic History from University College, London and LSE respectively.
Nancy Vanden Houten
Lead Economist
+1 646 668 5799
Private: Nancy Vanden Houten
Lead Economist
New York, United States
Nancy is a Lead Economist for the US Macro Team at Oxford Economics. She focuses on the impact of US fiscal policy on the economy and treasury debt market. Nancy also covers the US housing and mortgage markets and tends in household wealth and income. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Nancy worked at Stone and McCarthy research Associates and at Merrill Lynch.
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