Research Briefing | Aug 22, 2023

A rolling recession may have already begun in the US

We still think a mild recession is likely toward the end of this year in the US, sparked by elevated interest rates, tighter lending conditions, and restrictive Fed policy. However, a ‘rolling’ recession in which some industries suffer losses while others evade damage is a real threat.

What you will learn:

  • In fact, our new industry Business Cycle Indicators suggest the US economy may already be in a rolling recession, as they reveal a wide disparity between buoyant services and contracting goods activity.
  • Our services BCI is yet to show a meaningful slowdown as rising leisure and hospitality spending, solid income growth, the deployment of excess savings, and growing business investment keep activity on a positive track.
  • Goods-producing industries, meanwhile, are in the doldrums. Manufacturing overall is on a weak trajectory, though with some pockets of strength among firms in the business-to-business space. Construction is faring the worst among all our industry BCIs.
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