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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
December / January 2019

  • With few clear signs of recovery emerging, and a renewed escalation of trade tensions, we expect global growth to reach a low in early 2020 and then pick-up only gradually from there.
  • While there have been tentative signs that world industrial output and trade reached a trough in late 2019, activity in services has softened, so global growth may weaken further around the turn of the year.
  • We still see world growth bottoming-out in Q1 2020, with a pick-up following as widespread policy loosening starts to take effect. But any revival will be weak and we still expect global growth of only 2.5% this year and next.
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  • Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE SUMMARY: bit.ly/2E7hQvm. We see a further slowdown into 2020 and world growth of 2.5% this yr and next, the weakest since 2009. But despite heightened recession risks, we think this shd be avoided.

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