What happens when US dominance fades and China liberalises?
In our Q4 Megatrends Scenarios update, we introduce Global Rebalance, a scenario where political interference weakens the Federal Reserve’s independence and delayed fiscal action drives US debt higher, undermining the dollar’s global dominance. Meanwhile, China opens its financial markets and strengthens its role in global trade, accelerating the path toward de-dollarisation. We explore how these shifts could reshape global trade and finance through 2060, and what they mean for businesses and policymakers in a world where economic power is more broadly distributed.
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Speakers
Daniel Moseley
Dan is a Lead Economist in the Macro Modelling and Scenarios team, based in London. Since joining Oxford Economics in 2018, Dan has worked on a range of consulting projects, regulatory stress tests, bespoke scenario analysis and econometric modelling projects. Dan is responsible for the publication of our long-run macroeconomic scenario projections, the Megatrends Scenarios service.
Associate Director - Scenarios and Macro Modelling
Paul Moroz
Paul Moroz holds an undergraduate degree in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics (PPE) from the University of Oxford and an MSc in Economics from Birkbeck, University of London. Paul contributes to the Global Climate Service, the Global Scenarios Service, and bespoke client scenarios.
Senior Economist - Scenarios and Macro Modelling
Marco Santaniello
Marco Santaniello is an Economist in the Scenarios and Macro Modelling Division at Oxford Economics, based in London. He contributes to the development of long-term global scenarios and bespoke client projects using the Global Economic Model, as well as supporting the running of subscription services such as the Global Scenario Service (GSS). Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Marco worked as a Ratings Associate in the Sovereign Risk team at Moody’s Ratings. He holds a master’s degree in Economics from the University of Oxford and a bachelor’s degree in Political Economy from King’s College London.
Economist - Scenarios and Macro Modelling
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