Webinar

Canada Outlook Webinar: Recession fears have eased but not gone away

22 October 2025 – 11.00am EST (New York)

online

The removal of most Canadian retaliatory tariffs and ongoing exemptions from US tariffs for many goods means Canada will likely avoid a technical recession this year

Yet production is contracting in sectors dependent on US trade and that could broaden, so the overall economy will struggle to grow in the near term and remain on the verge of recession. Growth should pick up as 2026 progresses, aided by expansionary fiscal policy and accommodative monetary policy, but uncertainty will remain high, and the outlook will remain unsettled until the renegotiation of the USMCA.

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Speakers

Tony Stillo

Tony Stillo is the Director of Canada Economics at Oxford Economics. He leads the team responsible for preparing the macroeconomic forecast for Canada using Oxford Economics’ Global Economic Model, reporting on key data releases, as well as producing and presenting research on key issues affecting the Canadian economy. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 2018, Tony spent much of his career at the Ontario Ministry of Finance where he most recently led a team responsible for economic modelling, forecasting and impact analysis.

Director of Canada Economics

Michael Davenport

Michael is a Senior Economist with a particular focus on the Canadian economy. He primarily supports the Director of Canada Economics in producing macroeconomic research and forecasts, monitoring the Canadian economy, and liaising with clients and the media.

Michael first joined Oxford Economics Canada as an Economic Research Analyst Intern in the Toronto office in early 2019 and has since been promoted to a Senior Economist. Michael holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Financial Management from Wilfrid Laurier University and a Master of Arts in Economics from the University of Toronto.

Senior Economist, Canada

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