Preparing for the ECB’s 2026 Stress Test: Modelling Geopolitical Risk Scenarios

The Scenarios and Modelling team highlight the unique features of our Global Economic Model that make it perfectly suited to support you with this upcoming reverse stress test scenario exercise.

Its modelling structure, global coverage and wide range of shock levers – including granular bilateral tariff shocks, supply chain stress levers, bond risk, commodity prices, and many more – allow user to easily develop a wider range of scenario narratives bottom-up with clear traceability of assumptions. Access to the Global Model is complemented by extensive support from our in-house team of 450+ economists.

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Speakers

Marc Pacitti

Lead Economist, Scenarios and Macro Modelling

Riccardo Canini

Riccardo is based in our Milan office and leads the Business Development team covering Italy and South East Europe. He has joined Oxford Economics in 2017 and has experience in Business Development and Partnerships across different sectors. He holds a degree in Public Relation and Advertising from IULM University in Milan.

Director, Italy & South Eastern Europe