Research Briefing
Markets appear to be increasingly converging with our forecast that the Bank of Japan will abolish its negative interest rate...
Monetary policy
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Research Briefing
We remain steadfast on our long-standing heavy overweight in New Zealand government bonds within our global DM fixed income allocations.
Research Briefing
Emerging market (EM) central banks' credibility to restrain inflation over the medium-term horizon remains intact despite the tests it's been...
Research Briefing
We forecast UK GDP growth will average 1.5% a year over the medium-term. Though strong inward migration will continue to...
Research Briefing
Presidential elections not only have major implications for the future path of fiscal policy and the macroeconomic outlook, but they...
Research Briefing
Disruption to shipping through the Red Sea now looks likely to keep transport costs elevated at least for the next...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan left both short-term and long-term policy rates unchanged at Tuesday's meeting as widely expected. The BoJ...
Research Briefing
The odds of a recession have declined over the past several months because of a strong labor market, a deceleration...
Research Briefing
The UK inflation outlook has been transformed by steep falls in oil and gas prices and the recent softening in...
Research Briefing
Ahead of this spring's Two Sessions, we expect officials to realistically stake their growth target at around 4.5% in 2024...
We are unconvinced that recent measures mark a turning point in China's housing downturn and the resulting banking system is...
Research Briefing
Following a year of subdued global growth in 2023, we think a further softening of economic conditions is likely next...
Research Briefing
Indonesia's domestic demand has proved surprisingly resilient to monetary tightening in 2023, prompting multiple upgrades to our growth forecast this...
Research Briefing
The rapid surge in interest rates will continue to weigh on the Nordic economies next year with little external support,...
Research Briefing
We are unconvinced that recent measures mark a turning point in China's housing downturn, just as we were cautious of...
Research Briefing
Emerging market (EM) GDP growth will disappoint next year but EM central banks will reap the dividends of credible policies...
Research Briefing
Inflation will likely decelerate in 2024 as the impact of imported inflation wanes. We expect the Bank of Japan will...
Research Briefing
Growth in most LatAm economies will be below consensus. Economic momentum has surprised to the upside through most of 2023,...
Research Briefing
The UK's house price correction has been mild so far and recent data has indicated the market may be more...
Research Briefing
More market participants appear to have become confident that the wage-driven inflation is real, which will encourage the Bank of...
