Despite the upgrade to our global economic outlook since December 2023, the Q1 update of our IFRS 9 and CECL...
Financial conditions
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Research Briefing
The Nordic economies will have a better 2024 than last year, but growth rates will diverge across the region. The...
Research Briefing
After the sharp falls in eurozone inflation recently, a series of rate cuts this year by the European Central Bank...
Research Briefing
We move to a modest overweight on risk assets this month as we have become more optimistic on the global...
Research Briefing
The commercial real estate landscape has undergone considerable changes due to the recent surge in interest rates and emerging funding...
Research Briefing
The economy is weakening, but the incoming data are consistent with a slowdown rather than a technical recession.
Research Briefing
Our measure of financial conditions has become less restrictive in the US and started to loosen in the eurozone and...
Research Briefing
After a year of stagnating activity, the eurozone economy will continue to struggle to gain traction in the near term...
Research Briefing
The dollar will continue to be supported by a high carry and the relative resilience of the US economy. Even...
Research Briefing
We project the distribution of long-term economic pain inflicted by Covid will be similar to humans in the sense that those with pre-existing conditions will end up suffering the most.
Research Briefing
Our in-house financial conditions index reveals that while overall conditions are tight compared to pre-pandemic levels, Asia's financial conditions have been improving thanks to central banks' pause in rate hikes,...
Research Briefing
The IMF's forecast still looks too optimistic over the next 2 years in our view. The impact of bank funding...
Research Briefing
Concerns are growing that tightening financial conditions will push the US economy into recession and affect other G7 economies as...
Research Briefing
US authorities appear to have contained the fallout from the collapse of two regional banks – Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)...
Research Briefing
We expect the Philippines' 10-year government bond yield to trend down in 2023-2024, after rising continuously since Q3 2020.
Research Briefing
The failures of Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank have not changed our baseline forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, or...
Consulting Report
This report investigates the impact of the rise in mortgage interest rates on the financial resilience of UK households.
Research Briefing
In this new quarterly Research Briefing series, we answer the top five questions we've recently received from clients.
Research Briefing
Financial conditions in Canada have tightened significantly this year and we estimate this will shave 0.7ppts off GDP growth by...
Research Briefing
The Federal Reserve knows that their mission to tame inflation isn’t complete, and odds are rising that the central bank...
