Recent Release | 06 Mar 2023
At Risk Mortgage Holders
Economic Consulting Team
Oxford Economics
This report investigates the impact of the rise in mortgage interest rates on the financial resilience of UK households.
With most mortgage holders having switched to fixed-term contracts, higher mortgage rates will not impact all mortgage holders equally. Homeowners that are required to refinance their mortgages and those on variable-rate mortgages during this period face a sharp rise in mortgage cost compared to those who continue to be within their fixed term.
According to our forecast, by the end of 2023 mortgage costs will exceed 25% of net income for more than a quarter of mortgage owner occupiers. In common with FCA parlance, we define these households as ‘at risk’ of default and our analysis reveals that by the end of 2023, we expect there to be just over 2 million ‘at risk’ households, which would mark an 18-month increase of approximately 425,000.
For many of those refinancing, the financial shock will be unpleasant but manageable. By combining data from the Financial Barometer database the study incorporates information on other aspects of this ‘at risk’ group’s financial position. Focusing in on the vulnerable cohort, nearly one-third (650,000) have inadequate cash savings and around one-in-six (347,000) combine this with unsustainable spending.
About the team
Our economic consulting team are world leaders in quantitative economic analysis, working with clients around the globe and across sectors to build models, forecast markets and evaluate interventions using state-of-the art techniques. Lead consultants on this project were:
Henry Worthington
Director, Economic Consulting
+44 (0) 203 910 8061
Henry Worthington
Director, Economic Consulting
London, United Kingdom
Henry Worthington is a Director for Economic Consulting in Oxford Economics’ consultancy division managing a team of economists in London across a diverse range of projects featuring economic impact modelling, macroeconomic modelling and forecasting and scenario analysis.
He joined Oxford Economics in September 2008, originally as part of the global macroeconomics team. As part of the macro team Henry assumed forecasting responsibility for a number of countries including Russia, Poland and Hungary. In May 2010, Henry moved to the consultancy team. He has since lead and managed a wide range of projects notably an evaluation of the economic benefits of unconventional oil and gas extraction in Tunisia, research into the economic impact of hotel investments on behalf of the IFC, building a macroeconomic model for forecasting and scenario analysis in Abu Dhabi and developing a macroeconomic model to assess the implications of the introduction of VAT in the Bahamas.
Henry was educated at the University of Cambridge, where he gained a first-class degree in Economics, becoming the William Stone Scholar of Economics, and an MPhil in Modern Society and Global Transformations.
Ben Skelton
Lead Econometrician, Economic Consulting
+44 (0) 203 910 8055
Private: Ben Skelton
Lead Econometrician, Economic Consulting
London, United Kingdom
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