Recent Release | 06 Mar 2023
At Risk Mortgage Holders

Economic Consulting Team
Oxford Economics

With most mortgage holders having switched to fixed-term contracts, higher mortgage rates will not impact all mortgage holders equally. Homeowners that are required to refinance their mortgages and those on variable-rate mortgages during this period face a sharp rise in mortgage cost compared to those who continue to be within their fixed term.
According to our forecast, by the end of 2023 mortgage costs will exceed 25% of net income for more than a quarter of mortgage owner occupiers. In common with FCA parlance, we define these households as ‘at risk’ of default and our analysis reveals that by the end of 2023, we expect there to be just over 2 million ‘at risk’ households, which would mark an 18-month increase of approximately 425,000.
For many of those refinancing, the financial shock will be unpleasant but manageable. By combining data from the Financial Barometer database the study incorporates information on other aspects of this ‘at risk’ group’s financial position. Focusing in on the vulnerable cohort, nearly one-third (650,000) have inadequate cash savings and around one-in-six (347,000) combine this with unsustainable spending.
About the team
Our Economic Consulting team are world leaders in quantitative economic analysis, working with clients around the globe and across sectors to build models, forecast markets and evaluate interventions using state-of-the art techniques. Lead consultants on this project were:

Henry Worthington
Director, Economic Consulting

Ben Skelton
Lead Econometrician, Economic Consulting
You might be interested in

The Economics of Reduced-Risk Products: Global policy landscape and principles for policy treatment
In this study, Oxford Economics assesses the policy landscape for ‘Reduced-Risk Products’ in the tobacco market, and explores the potential health and economics consequences of taking a precautionary policy stance against them.
Find Out More
Industry in the age of the energy transition
This 5-page report identifies five key themes that will shape our Industry Climate Service research agenda over the course of 2024. The energy transition will have a significant impact on industrial activity this decade across several dimensions. Alongside the need for industry to urgently decarbonise its own activities, it will also play an instrumental role in the production of the low-carbon technologies necessary for decarbonisation in other sectors of the economy.
Find Out More
New Statesman: How to unblock the UK’s infrastructure logjam
Phil Thornton and Emily Gladstone at Oxford Economics, delve into the state of the UK's infrastructure projects and what delays and cancellations mean to the country's economy.
Find Out More
How to tackle sustainability challenges
Sustainability is a multifaceted challenge, shrouded in complexity. It can make navigating the complex landscape of sustainability daunting, with organisations often struggling to understand their unique challenges and find effective solutions or meet their reporting and disclosure requirements. Why, are companies struggling, even though 97% of businesses consider sustainability a top priority?
Find Out More