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Webinar
Global Consumer Outlook: Finding growth in 2024 and beyond

with Alex Mackle and Marcos Casarin | Online | March 6, 2024

Global consumer spending will continue to grow this year, despite the general economic slowdown. But as demand weakens and consumers’ tolerance for higher prices wanes, retailers will have to rely more on volumes expansion to match last year’s sales performance. In this webinar, we dig into the economic outlook to find pockets of growth in consumer spending markets across countries, cities and different categories of spending.

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Webinar
The mitigating circumstances around EM public debt threats

with Evghenia Sleptsova and Gabriel Sterne | Online | March 5, 2024

For larger emerging markets (EMs) the supply shocks era has led to increased public debt-to-GDP ratios. But we find solace in our assessment of recent budgets and in our dissection of debt composition. Various frontier markets, however, remain bogged down in crisis resolution processes the length of which are proving very costly to debtors and creditors alike; but even in the case of frontiers we see encouraging signs that some may regain market access as global monetary conditions ease.

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Webinar
Asia’s medium term growth outlook and its implications for major cities

with Arup Raha and Scott McEwan | Online | February 28, 2024

Over the next five years, economic growth across Asia is likely to diverge especially with two of the giants moving in opposite directions; China slowing and India starting to realise its potential. This has implications for how the cities in these two countries are likely to expand. Major cities in southeast Asia area expected to perform relatively well but there are contrasting fortunes elsewhere. For example, in advanced Asia, the major cities of Australia should exhibit an impressive rate of jobs growth. Our expectations for the likes of Melbourne and Perth contrasts starkly with major East Asian cities in Japan and South Korea, where the pressures of ageing populations is dragging on the potential for growth in output and jobs. We present both a top-down medium-term macro outlook and tie that to how major cities in Asia are likely to develop over the next 5 years.

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Webinar
Sailing ahead: how cruise supply will help to sustain demand recovery

with Helen McDermott and Christian Savelli | Online | February 27, 2024

The cruise sector is experiencing a renaissance, with strong demand growth outpacing wider travel activity, regardless of a 25% deployment increase compared to 2019. Looking at our first forecast up to 2029, we will explain how future deployment will impact demand for cruising; how this will compare against wider demand trends; and how this aligns with cruisers’ preferences revealed in our first cruise passenger survey.

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Webinar
European Construction Outlook

with Nicholas Fearnley | Online | February 22, 2024

European construction activity remained resilient over 2023 despite the headwinds created by higher financing costs, input cost inflation and labour shortages. We generally expect this resilience to continue into 2024, although the outlook varies by country and sector. In this webinar Dr Nicholas Fearnley will discuss the outlook and key risks for construction activity in Europe, and answer the following questions: • How does the outlook vary across sectors and countries? • How do delays to NGEU funding affect the outlook? • When will the renovation wave take off? • What is the outlook for material construction costs? • What are the risks and implications of higher interest rates and construction costs?

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Webinar
Red Sea attacks are not an inflation gamechanger

with Ben May and Kiki Sondh | Online | February 21, 2024

We see the disruption to shipping in the Red Sea as more likely than not to last at least six months, implying that the associated rise in shipping costs will linger and move up the supply chain. While we expect the impact on CPI inflation to be small, it will take time before this becomes unambiguously clear. This uncertainty could ultimately prompt central banks to delay rate cuts to give themselves more information on the inflationary impacts. However, the Red Sea attacks are only one of many factors that policymakers will factor into their considerations – we still think rate cuts will commence around mid-2024.

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Webinar
Why we think LatAm interest rates will fall faster than markets expect

with Felipe Camargo and Joan Domene | Online | February 16, 2024

Our research on key long run drivers of interest rates – based on models and discretion – suggests that markets will face larger-than-expected drops in bond yields in the economies of the region. Global and domestic considerations lead us to forecast a 100bps drop in Brazilian 10-year yields and a 150bps in those of Mexico, both which exceed current consensus expectations.

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Webinar
Will lower inflation mean the MPC cuts rates faster?

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | February 15, 2024

The UK inflation outlook has been transformed by steep falls in oil and gas prices and a softening in core price pressures and we think there’s a good chance that inflation will be back at the 2% target in April. The case for loosening monetary policy looks strong, but will the MPC agree? In this webinar we look at how the inflation and monetary policy outlooks will evolve in 2024.

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Webinar
Winter forecast update: US Industry and Tech Spending outlook

with Victoria Tribone and Ahmed Abdelmeguid | Online | February 14, 2024

Our US Industry economists will provide an update on the latest US industry trends and outlook for 2024. This will include a discussion on key themes for the year, such as private sector spending on Tech Services and how we expect the Service sector to continue to outperform relative to the industrial economy. The more robust growth in manufacturing and service subsectors, like information services and electronics, is driven, in part, by strong end-user demand and a normalization of supply dynamics.

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Webinar
China: Will the ‘New Three’ industries prove an economic game-changer?

with Louise Loo | Online | February 2, 2024

A step-up in decarbonisation efforts has boosted growth in the new industries of electric vehicles, batteries, and renewables in China. To what extent are these proving to be the economy's new growth drivers? What can authorities do about the risk of overcapacity? Can these industries offset the macro drag from a shrinking housing sector?

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Webinar
Australian Key Themes in 2024: Growth to slow as policy bites

with Sean Langcake and Ben Udy | Online | January 31, 2024

Australia's economy outperformed expectations for much of 2023, boosted by a surge in population growth. With this dividend to growth set to wane, and policy settings curbing demand growth, the outlook for 2024 is weaker than 2023. We see three key themes as pivotal to next year's outlook.

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Webinar
Latin America: Travel & Tourism sectors to drive growth across the region

with Jessie Smith and Joan Domene | Online | January 31, 2024

While we forecast economic growth in Latin America to be slightly weaker in 2024 than in 2023, the region will still outperform most advanced economies. Leading this growth will be the travel & tourism sector as consumers in major markets continue to prioritise leisure travel spending. Caribbean and Central American destinations have been among the top performers, benefitting from resurgent US demand and the strength of the US Dollar, including the remarkable return and expansion of cruise activity. In this webinar we will look at economic activity, including key demand drivers and the prospects for more widespread travel recovery as well as major risk factors.

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Webinar
Global CRE key themes for 2024 – A year of transition

with Mark Unsworth and Nicholas Wilson | Online | January 30, 2024

Global GDP growth and inflation will slow in 2024 and central banks will begin to pivot in H2. Commercial real estate (CRE) values are likely to be slow to recover but opportunities will start to emerge. In this real estate webinar we discuss the outlook and take you through our key themes for the year ahead.

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Webinar
ETC tourism trends and prospects: Q4 2023

with Chloe Parkins, Dave Goodger and Menno Van IJseel | Online | January 25, 2024

Tourism Economics will provide an overview of the latest tourism sector trends and outlook in Europe. This will include how international travel performed towards the end of 2023, with more countries verging on recovery. Further to this, we will delve into the prospects for recovery from China and other longer-haul markets.

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Webinar
L’anno che verrà: prospettive economiche per il 2024

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | January 23, 2024

Quali prospettive per l’economia globale ed europea in questo nuovo anno? La disinflazione proseguirà innescando rapidamente un allentamento monetario, o la solidità dei mercati del lavoro continuerà a mettere pressioni sui salari spingendo le banche centrali a mantenere i tassi elevati? Il deterioramento delle dinamiche di crescita in corso anticipa una recessione più marcata o si tratta solamente di un soft landing?

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Webinar
Global Climate Service: An Equitable Path for Sustainable Development

with Beatrice Tanjangco and Manuela Kiehl | Online | January 19, 2024

Climate-related disasters continue to break records and disproportionately impact developing economies. At COP 28 in November, the issue of how we fund the climate transition was pushed to 2024. In light of this, Oxford Economics’ Global Climate Service updates its bespoke Sustainable Development scenario, in which advanced economies take a lead in climate mitigation and allow developing economies more time to wind down their emissions. They also provide cross-country funding transfers because developing economies don’t have the necessary spending power to invest in green infrastructure and technologies. This pathway provides developing economies with the leeway to pursue their climate agenda without compromising growth or the global transition. In this webinar, we will review what happened in COP28 and the economic implications of a Sustainable Development scenario relative to other climate pathways such as Net Zero.

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Webinar
Key themes for cities in 2024: Cities that will be driving growth in 2024

with Anthony Light and Mark Britton | Online | January 18, 2024

In what will likely be another challenging year for the global economy, attention will increasingly focus on identifying the most resilient cities, and those that will be leading the way forward for their national economies. In this webinar we will present our short-term forecasts for major cities in North America, Asia and Europe, and discuss the key themes that underpin our projections.

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Webinar
Finding value in frontier market sovereigns

with Evghenia Sleptsova and Sergi Lanau | Online | January 16, 2024

In this webinar we will discuss which frontier markets are likely to default next year, and which have the capacity to keep servicing their debt and thus offer value to investors. We will also offer country-specific insights on Ecuador, El Salvador, Egypt, Ukraine and others.

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Webinar
Key themes for 2024 – another year of price weakness

with Diego Cacciapuoti, Stephen Hare and Toby Whittington | Online | December 15, 2023

Energy and metal markets have experienced a sharp reversal in prices this year, as we expected, diminishing the Super cycle thesis of our competitors. In this webinar, we examine the key themes affecting commodity markets in 2024 as the energy transition gathers pace and discuss our leading calls for prices in the year ahead. Overall, we expect another year of price weakness as we forecast the global economy to grow at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis, excluding the pandemic. We also anticipate supply to improve across commodity markets next year, which will further weigh on prices.

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