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Webinar
Frontier market turmoil: Argentina’s value, Sri Lanka’s crisis, Egyptian FX worries

with Gabriel Sterne, Regis Chatellier and Maya Senussi | Online | May 24, 2022

Frontier markets will continue to be volatile in the near term, but bond valuations are attractive with plenty of arbitrage opportunities. We see value in Argentine bonds, as the country should benefit from higher commodity prices and liquidity risks are contained; we focus on the light at the end of Sri Lanka’s tunnel, with markets failing to price in the possibility of a successful IMF program; and also our concerns that further depreciation may be consistent with Egyptian stabilisation efforts.

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Webinar
España y Europa en la encrucijada

with Angel Talavera | Online | May 23, 2022

Aunque las perspectivas de crecimiento para este año siguen siendo relativamente robustas, la recuperación se enfrenta a una serie creciente de riesgos. La alta inflación, los problemas en las cadenas de subministro, la volatilidad en los mercados y la inminente subida de tipos están causando una preocupación creciente sobre los riesgos de recesión en Europa. Analizaremos las perspectivas para la economía europea y española en este entorno crecientemente volátil.

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Webinar
Latin America’s winners and losers from the war in Ukraine

with Marcos Casarin and Felipe Camargo | Online | May 20, 2022

As a relevant commodity exporter, Latin America stands to benefit from the generalized increase in prices for raw materials. But the gains will not be uniform across all countries or across all sector of the economy, as the renewed rise in inflation will squeeze consumers' incomes and savings.

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Webinar
When will inflation fall back and how quickly?

with Ben May and Tim Hunter | Online | May 19, 2022

While the spillovers from the Ukraine war and the impact on supply chains from China’s zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19 add to uncertainty over when and where inflation will peak, we continue to expect inflation to fall back sharply towards the end of the year and to undershoot consensus in 2023. In this webinar, we set out why we see inflation falling back so sharply and what are the likely implications for the wider economy and monetary policy.

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Webinar
Is the air travel recovery headed for turbulence?

with Dave Goodger, Tourism Economics, Stephen Rooney, Tourism Economics and Andrew Matters - Economic Advisor to IATA | Online | May 18, 2022

Air travel demand accelerated in early 2022 prompting expectations of a rapid acceleration into the northern hemisphere summer and suggesting that fears of a sharp Omicron-related fall were unfounded. However, concerns in many countries have now shifted towards the impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine which we will explore, along with our forecast partners at IATA, in this webinar. We will look at the path for recovery in the rest of the year and beyond as well as major risk factors.

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Webinar
US macro, industries, and metro outlook – Inflation and war take the spotlight from Covid

with Oren Klachkin and Barbara Byrne Denham | Online | May 17, 2022

High inflation, rising interest rates, greater supply chain stress, and the war in Ukraine have quickly replaced Covid as the major concerns facing the US economy. Despite these new challenges, we think the US economy still stands on solid ground. We look for leisure and hospitality to lead the growth charge as the broader US economy recoups all jobs lost to the pandemic by the end of 2022. Tune in to learn what we think lies ahead for the US economy – with a focus on the path ahead for US metros and regions.

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Webinar
Will the strong run of Australian maintenance activity continue?

with Dr Nicholas Fearnley and Luka Raznatovic | Online | May 16, 2022

Australia’s maintenance market has grown strongly as COVID stimulus coincided with a ramp up in the maintenance needs of the mining sector. While governments are expected to continue to support the industry, growth in activity is set to subside over the next few years. In this webinar, Dr Nicholas Fearnley and Luka Raznatovic will be discussing the outlook for maintenance activity. They will highlight which sectors have the most promising outlook, and discuss the key risks and opportunities facing the maintenance market.

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Webinar
Portugal: abrandamento em curso

with Ricardo Amaro | Online | May 16, 2022

A economia Portuguesa manteve um ritmo de crescimento acima do esperado no início de 2022, beneficiando do alívio das restrições relativas à pandemia. O PIB cresceu 2.6% em cadeia no primeiro trimestre do ano, ultrapassando em 1.3% o seu nível pré-pandemia. Para o que resta do ano, a Oxford Economics perspectiva uma dinâmica de crescimento bastante mais modesta, com a recuperação económica atrasada pelo conflito na Ucrânia e pressões inflacionistas acentuadas. Porém o resultado do primeiro trimestre, e associado efeito carry-over, deixa o PIB português bem posicionado para crescer no conjunto de 2022 acima de 6.5%, sendo neste momento os 4.9% perspectivados pelo Governo e Banco de Portugal mais plausíveis num cenário adverso. Os últimos desenvolvimentos tornaram também obsoletas a maioria das previsões para a inflação em 2022. A taxa de inflação atingiu 7.4% em Abril e irá manter-se elevada nos próximos meses, resultando numa média anual ligeiramente acima dos 6% - deixando a nossa previsão bastante acima dos 4% do Governo e Banco de Portugal. Neste terceiro webinar (em português) iremos apresentar mais detalhadamente as nossas perspectivas para Portugal e para a zona euro.

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Webinar
Stagflation! We reveal EMs most vulnerable to nasty supply shock legacies

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | May 12, 2022

The great moderation of previous decades has given way to a period of ghastly aggravation. The key drivers of good times were good policy, good luck and structural change. Now things have reversed, and we reveal those EMs most at risk of longer term macro-instability, based on the views of our country economists and a simple scoring system based on key performance-metrics.

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Webinar
Global construction continuing to rebound despite Russia-Ukraine conflict and China lockdowns

with Dr Nicholas Fearnley | Online | May 10, 2022

Globally, the value of Construction Work Done is continuing to rebound following the Covid disruption, supported by government stimulus which is being targeted in different ways across different countries. However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and recent omicron outbreaks in China weigh over the near-term outlook. In this webinar we present our key findings of the distribution and outlook of construction activity across sectors and countries. We will also discuss our plans for the service, including further developments that will be launched later this year.

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Webinar
Asia: What do rising inflation pressures mean for growth

with Priyanka Kishore and Tommy Wu | Online | May 6, 2022

Asia’s inflation troubles have increased with rising import prices adding on to upside pressures from domestic sources. We forecast consumer inflation to keep rising into Q3 but remain within manageable levels. Risks to our inflation view are to the upside.

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Webinar
The Geography of Talent: How new ways of working are affecting individuals, industries, and regions

with Edward Cone, Barbara Byrne Denham and Saumya Jain | Online | May 5, 2022

As organizations around the world call their people back to the office, our experts offer their insights on the changing realities of employment in the post-pandemic era. Join senior economists Barbara Denham and Saumya Jain, and editorial director Edward Cone for a conversation about the future of work.

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Webinar
Where real estate investors should look for shelter from high inflation

with Christopher Babatope and Mark Unsworth | Online | May 4, 2022

With US headline inflation hitting its highest level since December 1981 in April and the Federal Reserve entering a front-loaded tightening cycle, there is plenty for real estate investors to consider. At the national level we still expect 2022 returns to be above historical averages but the picture among sectors and cities is mixed. We examine where investors can find the best shelter from the impact of higher inflation across the US and how real estate compares to other asset classes.

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Webinar
War in Ukraine presents new headwinds for the Nordics

with Daniel Kral, Rory Fennessy and Lawrence Harper-Scott | Online | April 29, 2022

In this webinar, we will discuss the channels through which Russia’s invasion of Ukraine impacts the Nordic economies. Specifically, its impact on energy prices and inflation, Nordic dependence on Russia’s fossil fuels, and trade and industry links.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: New Headwinds Emerge

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | April 27, 2022

The Canadian economy weathered Omicron better than expected, but new headwinds have emerged that will boost inflation and slow growth. The economic impact on Canada of Russia's invasion of Ukraine should be limited due to few direct trade and financial ties. Rather the fallout for Canada will be primarily via higher global energy and food prices, weaker external demand, and supply disruptions. Domestically, we now expect a correction in Canadian house prices will get underway by autumn, triggered by record unaffordability, rising interest rates, and new policies to tax house-flippers and non-resident-owned vacant homes.

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Webinar
Food price inflation could hit Africa the hardest

with Jacques Nel and Petro van Eck | Online | April 26, 2022

Food accounts for a large share of the consumer price basket in a number of African countries. This means that the impact of surging global food prices will be marked. Higher food prices will filter through to consumers and undermine purchasing power. But the impact will extend far beyond headline CPI: calls for subsidies will either be heeded, putting pressure on the fiscus, or disregarded, resulting in social discontent. In this webinar we look at which African countries look set to be hit the hardest and what this means for the fiscus, monetary policy, and political stability.

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Webinar
European travel recovery deferred but not derailed – ETC 2022 Q1 trends and prospects

with Dave Goodger, Tourism Economics, Thomas Emanuel, STR and Jennifer Iduh, ETC | Online | April 21, 2022

2022 was set to be a strong year for the tourism sector in recovery from the pandemic but now faces further challenges due to the war and humanitarian disaster in Ukraine. Recent trends will be discussed in this webinar, as well as the outlook and risks in Tourism Economics latest projections and the new ETC quarterly report, including a more detailed look at hotel sector trends in STR data.

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Webinar
Deglobalisation or ‘slowbalisation’?

with Adam Slater | Online | April 20, 2022

We look at whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict could be the trigger for a period of deglobalisation where the decades-long expansion of world trade and investment goes into reverse. We consider the evidence from recent trends in world trade and FDI, the impacts of trade reorientation by Russia and possible changes in payment systems for resource exports from Russia and other economies, and the effect of the war on the potential ‘decoupling’ of the Chinese economy with the economies of the West. Will these factors fracture the world trade system or is a much more muted impact more likely?

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Webinar
Which world cities will see the strongest employment growth to 2026, and why?

with Richard Holt and Anthony Light | Online | April 19, 2022

Following the recent publication of our latest forecasts for the world’s leading cities, and against a background of huge short-term uncertainty for the global economy, this webinar will stand back, and offer a medium-term (to 2026) view of job prospects in major cities. Have the pandemic, the inflation surge and supply shortages, and now the Russian invasion of Ukraine, changed everything? Or will cities in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific gradually return to their pre-pandemic trajectories? Which cities will be the winners, and which are the ones that are most likely to struggle?

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