Deglobalisation or ‘slowbalisation’?
We look at whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict could be the trigger for a period of deglobalisation where the decades-long expansion of world trade and investment goes into reverse. We consider the evidence from recent trends in world trade and FDI, the impacts of trade reorientation by Russia and of possible changes in payment systems for resource exports from Russia and other economies, and the effect of the war on the potential ‘decoupling’ of the Chinese economy with the economies of the West. Will these factors fracture the world trade system or is a much more muted impact more likely?
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Adam Slater is a lead economist at Oxford Economics, responsible for contributing to and helping to communicate Oxford Economics’ global macroeconomic view, including writing for and helping edit regular publications. He has a particular interest in developments in financial markets, and a specific forecast interest in the Japanese economy. He is also involved in Oxford Economics’ work on a variety of consultancy projects.
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