Deglobalisation or ‘slowbalisation’?
We look at whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict could be the trigger for a period of deglobalisation where the decades-long expansion of world trade and investment goes into reverse. We consider the evidence from recent trends in world trade and FDI, the impacts of trade reorientation by Russia and of possible changes in payment systems for resource exports from Russia and other economies, and the effect of the war on the potential ‘decoupling’ of the Chinese economy with the economies of the West. Will these factors fracture the world trade system or is a much more muted impact more likely?
Note: Please note that we will be holding one webinar each for APAC, EMEA, and Americas friendly time zones. Can’t make it to any of the sessions? Feel free to register for any session and we will automatically share the recording with you 3 hours after the webinar has finished.
Adam Slater is a lead economist at Oxford Economics, responsible for contributing to and helping to communicate Oxford Economics’ global macroeconomic view, including writing for and helping edit regular publications. He has a particular interest in developments in financial markets, and a specific forecast interest in the Japanese economy. He is also involved in Oxford Economics’ work on a variety of consultancy projects.
A comprehensive source of forecasts for world trade.Find Out More
Global Risk Service
A suite of data-driven and forward-looking tools that provide an objective and transparent measure of risk.Find Out More
Nordic Macro Service
Track, analyse, and react to macro events and future trends in the Nordic region.Find Out More
MENA Forecasting Service
Monitor the implications of economic and market developments in the MENA region.Find Out More
Latin America Macro Service
A complete service to help you track, analyse, and react to macro events and future trends across Latin America.Find Out More
European Macro Service
A complete service to help executives track, analyse and react to macro events and future trends for the European region.Find Out More
Global Macro Service
Monitor macro events and their potential impact.Find Out More
Global Economic Model
Our Global Economic Model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and testing scenarios.Find Out More