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Webinar
Global soft patch to push central banks towards policy pivot

with Ben May | Online | September 22, 2023

Economic resilience has been the key theme for the first half of 2023, but we have repeatedly argued that this unexpected strength mainly reflects spending borrowed from the future. Recently, it has become increasingly clear that the transition to weaker growth has begun. We expect a combination of a steady easing in headline and core inflation over the coming months and recessions or lacklustre growth to prompt the Fed and the European Central Bank to start cutting rates in April or May next year. The subsequent speed of policy loosening will be slow, in line with past cycles where cuts begun whilst core inflation was above target.

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Webinar
Industrial outlook remains gloomy for now

with Nico Palesch and Sean Metcalfe | Online | September 14, 2023

High-frequency indicators show that economic activity is weakening through the second half of 2023, and that industry is performing worse than the broader economy. The impact of past policy tightening and the reduced availability of credit is dampening activity and contributing to a deteriorating near-term outlook for investment spending, which is disproportionately impacting manufacturing and other investment-facing sectors of the economy. While supply chains have normalised to a large degree, which is contributing to easing inflation and recovering production in backlog-affected sectors, headwinds to industrial activity are shifting partly from the supply to the demand side. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to expect a relatively shallow downturn in industrial activity as opposed to a total collapse. In this webinar, we will provide a comprehensive update of the global industrial outlook and account for the divergent fortunes across the different sectors that make up the economy.

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Webinar
Asia’s tug of war as China grows and the US slows

with Arup Raha | Online | June 7, 2023

While the pandemic is effectively over, its aftershocks remain for Asian economies. Balance sheets of households, firms and government will need rebuilding and bottlenecks will need to be eased. Plus, policy space is limited and the extent of the structural dislocations are not fully known. Unlike in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis or the Global Financial Crisis, Asia’s growth recovery is likely to be more difficult. Plus, a spotlight on China. There is a post-Covid growth bounce but is it sustainable? We look at tussle between the cyclical pick up and the structural drag on the economy. What does the medium-term future look like?

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Webinar
The outlook for cities as the world addresses climate change

with Anthony Light and Mark Britton | Online | April 26, 2023

The impact of policies to address climate change will have an uneven impact on local economies, due to their unique industrial composition and vulnerability to climate events. In this webinar, we will answer the following questions: how big an impact will policies to tackle climate affect economic growth in cities? Which cities will be most affected, and will there be winners as well as losers? What impact will climate transition policies have on subnational growth disparities?

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Webinar
Global Climate Service: Divergent policies & the cost of uncoordinated action

with David Winter, Sean Metcalfe and Felicity Hannon | Online | April 20, 2023

This quarter our new scenario – Divergent Net Zero – demonstrates the cost of uncoordinated policy action. Divergence in mitigation policy across sectors results in a higher burden on consumers relative to industry. In this webinar we present detailed results at the macro and industry level, leveraging our new Industry Climate Service, which quantifies the impacts of climate scenarios on economic activity and energy consumption at the industry level.

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Webinar
Global scenarios: Policy peril

with Jamie Thompson and Manuela Kiehl | Online | March 13, 2023

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service, including the sensitivity of monetary policy and economic activity to near-term price developments. We highlight in particular the potential implications for the global economy of a stronger Chinese recovery and higher-than-expected inflation.

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Webinar
China: After the Two Sessions

with Louise Loo and Lloyd Chan | Online | March 10, 2023

The annual “Two Sessions” in China this year will see a change in personnel at the top levels, potential changes to party restructuring and major financial regulators, as well as the unveiling of key economic targets for 2023, amid the fierce confluence of domestic and external headwinds. Longer-term structural challenges, including China’s growth model transition and ageing demographics, will also dominate policy discussions. This webinar will focus on the implications of these policy announcements on our China macro outlook, and discuss the risks to our forecasts.

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Webinar
The high-stakes election in Africa’s largest democracy

with Pieter Scribante | Online | February 23, 2023

Nigerians are heading to the polls to vote for a new president, the house of representatives, and the senate on February 25, and for their state-wide representatives and governors on March 11. These elections take place under a spectre of record-high inflation, a deepening currency crisis, dissatisfaction with the political establishment, and heightened insecurity. Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari is term-limited and set to be replaced. There are three candidates with a realistic path to victory: Bola Tinubu from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi from the Labour Party. In this webinar, we explore three scenarios of the potential outcome of the election and discuss the associated policy implications.

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Webinar
Global Climate Service: Climate Catastrophe

with Felicity Hannon and David Winter | Online | January 25, 2023

The Global Climate Service quantifies the macroeconomic impacts of five climate scenarios against a stated policies baseline. These scenarios help businesses understand the trade-offs and implications of climate mitigation. This quarter our new scenario – Climate Catastrophe – underscores the costs of climate inaction. It models a high-emissions pathway by which global warming, temperature volatility and more frequent extreme heat events cause severe physical damages that accelerate over time.

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Webinar
UK 2023 Themes: Recession ahead but policy pivot unlikely

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | December 20, 2022

We expect the UK economy to be in recession for most of 2023, with activity dragged down by falling real household income and tight policy settings. Given the underlying conditions that drove tight policy settings have not gone away, it looks unlikely that policymakers will pivot towards providing more support unless the downturn is much deeper than we anticipate.

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Webinar
EMs’ year ahead – time to pick up a few gems as the steam roller passes by

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | December 8, 2022

In our annual outlook for global emerging markets, we will highlight those EMs most vulnerable to weak global demand and a strong dollar in 2023. Better news is that tail risks associated with very high import prices will fade; and we will show which economies and markets stand to benefit most from falling inflation, ahead-of-the-curve policies and any resumption in capital inflows. Finally, we will assess implications of global policy impotence to deal with this wave of sovereign distress.

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Webinar
Post-election scenarios for Brazil

with Marcos Casarin and Felipe Camargo | Online | October 28, 2022

Brazil's presidential election will be decided on October 29 in a runoff between left-wing former president Lula da Silva (PT) and far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro (PL). We think that a Lula victory could be a best-case scenario for investors, as the charismatic, progressive leader will have to reach consensuses with a conservative congress to pass legislation, reducing the risks of radical policy changes.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Recession looks unavoidable

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | October 27, 2022

Canada's economy has already weakened and a moderate recession is now inevitable. Overly aggressive monetary policy tightening, a deepening housing correction, falling real incomes, and looming recessions in the US, UK, and Eurozone will push Canada into a downturn this fall.

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Webinar
Untangling the African political economy patchwork

with Pieter Scribante and Jacques Nel | Online | October 25, 2022

The African policy environment is volatile and difficult to predict due to complex interconnections between politics and economics. By using political economy risk tools, we can better understand where we could see the most severe policy volatility and what direction this policy might take. In this session we explore the findings of our updated political economy framework. These findings include in what way the nature of challenges to government supremacy matter – challenges by civil society (South Africa, Botswana, and Mauritius) have qualitatively different outcomes to challenges by the military or armed groups (Mozambique, Libya, and Ethiopia) – and how elections feed into policy decisions.

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Webinar
Why the US neutral rate will fall below pre-pandemic lows

with Ben May and Daniel Harenberg | Online | October 20, 2022

With US policy rates rising until inflation is clearly under control, we ask what will happen once inflation normalizes. To help answer this, we estimated the US neutral interest rate and the extent to which it has shifted due to fundamental, structural forces. We find that the neutral rate, having fallen strongly since 1970, will remain low through 2050, and we explain and quantify how nine secular forces are behind this.

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Webinar
Pre-emptive debt restructuring: a viable scenario for fragile African sovereigns?

with Irmgard Erasmus | Online | September 30, 2022

The expiry of Covid-19-related support coupled with a surge in the goods import bill has exacerbated pressure on external trade positions for various African sovereigns. We see headwinds intensifying from 2023 onwards in the form of a deepening drought in East Africa, populist-leaning policies aimed at appeasing voter frustrations, large redemptions of external public debt facilities, and moral hazard. The risk profile is fragmented but a common thread can be found across Africa: sovereigns face an uphill battle in meeting the projected external funding requirements. With the risks of disorderly default on the rise and informed by the Zambian blueprint, we investigate the case for pre-emptive debt restructuring for fiscally fragile nations including Egypt, Ghana, and Kenya.

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Webinar
Fed aims to slay the inflation dragon – what will it take?

with Kathy Bostjancic and Lydia Boussour | Online | September 15, 2022

The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell has raised the fed funds rate by the fastest pace since the 1980’s when former Chairman Volcker set out to slay the inflation dragon that lingered from the 1970’s. We estimate that Fed still needs to raise the policy rate by another 150bps and expect that to be done by the end of this year. This would lift the fed funds target range to 3.75% - 4%, which should help lead inflation markedly lower by the end of 2023. However, this comes at a cost as the restrictive policy level will tip the economy into a mild recession in H1 2023.

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