Fed aims to slay the inflation dragon – what will it take?

The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell has raised the fed funds rate by the fastest pace since the 1980’s when former Chairman Volcker set out to slay the inflation dragon that lingered from the 1970’s. We estimate that Fed still needs to raise the policy rate by another 150bps and expect that to be done by the end of this year. This would lift the fed funds target range to 3.75% – 4%, which should help lead inflation markedly lower by the end of 2023. However, this comes at a cost as the restrictive policy level will tip the economy into a mild recession in H1 2023.

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Lydia Boussour

Lead Economist

+1 (646) 668 5798

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Private: Lydia Boussour

Lead Economist

New York, United States

Lydia joined Oxford Economics in 2018. She primarily covers US economic and monetary policy developments and provides analysis of high-frequency economic indicators. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Lydia spent five years at Evercore ISI as a US economist, providing clients with timely analysis on the US economy. She also worked at Société Générale in London and New York as a research associate on the global economics team.