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Webinar
Economics of a second Trump presidency

with Ryan Sweet and Bernard Yaros | Online | April 29, 2024

Continuing our series of analyses on the 2024 election, we modeled the macroeconomic impact of a second Donald Trump presidency. If the former president wins on Election Day, he will most likely return to the White House with Republican majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate. Assuming full Republican control of government after the 2024 election, we constructed two scenarios that bookend a range of outcomes for the US economy. This webinar will discuss the results of the Trump scenarios, including for inflation, GDP, monetary policy, trade and immigration.

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Webinar
Rising US economy not lifting all boats

with Barbara Denham and Bernard Yaros | Online | April 24, 2024

The US economy is doing well because of the strength of the labour market, past easing in financial market conditions and solid household and non-financial corporate balance sheets. Some of these supports will fade through the remainder of this year and the Federal Reserve could wait too long to begin normalizing monetary policy. The supply side of the economy is key to the outlook. Business formations will likely soften, and immigration will provide less support to labour force growth. Tune in to this webinar to learn more about the economy’s prospects, along with a focus on how metro areas differ in the labour market and immigration as a rising US economy hasn’t lifted all boats evenly.

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Webinar
Central and Eastern Europe: More uneven than ever?

with Mateusz Urban and Tomas Dvorak | Online | April 3, 2024

A wide gap in economic performance has opened in the usually homogenous CEE region. Poland, Romania and, to a lesser extent, Slovakia have been consistently outperforming their Czech and Hungarian peers. We expect this divergence to narrow only partially in the near term. The gap in growth permeates into other economic areas too – the outperformers have to contend with more persistent, demand-driven inflation, halting the plans to loosen historically tight monetary policy. Many of the CEE governments have also been unusually fiscally active. We’ll be exploring the diverging macro outlook for the CEE region and some strategy implications in this EM webinar.

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Webinar
Latin America Regional Outlook – Growth turns a corner as monetary policy eases

with Tim Hunter and Debora Reyna Garcia | Online | March 13, 2024

In this webinar, we will review the regional outlook for Latin America. Central banks have largely triumphed in taming high inflation, but at a cost to output. Prospects should improve in the second half of this year, but there are important growth stories to uncover across countries. Key to this will be consumer spending, which has shown varying degrees of resilience to the high interest rates of the past few years. We will also review our latest research, with a focus on the outlook for monetary policy. This will be key for markets, with Mexico yet to start easing whereas Chile nears the end of its cycle.

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Webinar
Will lower inflation mean the MPC cuts rates faster?

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | February 15, 2024

The UK inflation outlook has been transformed by steep falls in oil and gas prices and a softening in core price pressures and we think there’s a good chance that inflation will be back at the 2% target in April. The case for loosening monetary policy looks strong, but will the MPC agree? In this webinar we look at how the inflation and monetary policy outlooks will evolve in 2024.

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Webinar
Global Valve and Actuator

with Kiran Ahmed and Jeremy Leonard | Online | November 30, 2023

In partnership with the British Valve and Actuator Association, the latest edition of our annual Global Valve and Actuator Market Outlook highlights that across most markets, fundamental demand conditions for valve and actuator consumption remain soft. Tight monetary policy will continue to weigh on economic activity, limiting activity in valve end-use markets and investment spending more generally.

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Webinar
UK Key Themes for 2024

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | November 29, 2023

Our final UK webinar of the year looks at what we can expect to see in 2024. Though the inflation shock is fading, consumers will remain under pressure as the impact of tighter monetary policy continues to emerge. Companies will also feel the pinch, with high debt servicing costs the latest in a series of problems they’ve had to deal with. But it’s not all bad news. The labour market appears to be headed for a relatively soft landing. And with a general election fast approaching, we’ll discuss whether the fiscal policy landscape is likely to change.

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Webinar
Monetary policy puzzles

with Arup Raha | Online | November 15, 2023

There is significant uncertainty as Asian economies approach the new year. There are two wars being fought, China faces structural headwinds, and we are not fully sure of the damage to the balance sheets of firms and households from Covid. Plus, higher oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and high US bond yields are restricting what policymakers in Asia can do. We try and wade through all this and arrive at the most likely outlook for Asian economies.

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Webinar
Identifying attractive EM local bonds

with Lucila Bonilla and Tomas Dvorak | Online | November 14, 2023

Disinflation momentum, weakening economic activity, high real rates, and attractive term premia explain our positive view on EM local currency debt. Weak growth raises the risk of inflation undershoots and faster monetary policy normalisation in Central and Eastern Europe. Latin America’s disinflation progressed smoothly, but growth outperformed expectations this year, prompting shallower normalisation paths. Markets price in too few rate cuts in some of these economies. We continue to tilt our local currency debt portfolio into these regions and will lay the case for our preferred stories.

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Webinar
The policy cycle is peaking but is European CRE out of the woods?

with Mark Unsworth and Tomas Dvorak | Online | September 21, 2023

As we approach the peak of the monetary tightening cycle we assess what this means for UK and eurozone economic growth, inflation and interest rates. We explore the latest developments in the European commercial real estate market and assess if values have reached a turning point.

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Webinar
W oczekiwaniu na odbicie gospodarcze: Świat, Europa, Polska

with Mateusz Urban | Online | September 20, 2023

Globalna aktywność gospodarcza pozostaje pod presją podwyższonej inflacji i, przede wszystkim, znacznego zacieśnienia polityki monetarnej utrzymującego znaczną część gospodarek rozwiniętych na granicy stagnacji. Podczas tego webinaru przedstawimy prognozy Oxford Economics dotyczące gospodarki światowej, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem krajów strefy euro. Na koniec przyjrzymy się wpływowi otoczenia zewnętrznego jak również krajowego "policy mix" na krótkoterminowe perspektywy dla gospodarki Polski.

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Webinar
LatAm growth slows as Argentina eyes a silver bullet

with Joan Domene and Felipe Camargo | Online | September 8, 2023

Growth dynamics across the region’s largest economies are diverging. Mexico’s delayed recovery will support its overperformance, while most countries are already feeling the impact of policy tightening. Resilient consumption in some countries and new shocks to commodity prices could compromise the speed of monetary policy normalization, which has already begun. Argentina’s surprise presidential front-runner opened the door to a possible dollarization that revived an old ghost. We will discuss the potential path to its implementation and the degree of success it could achieve.

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Webinar
EM policy pivots ahead of AEs as investment takes a hit

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | August 24, 2023

Real activity growth in emerging markets (EMs) ex-China has been more resilient than we expected, despite very tight monetary policy. So far this year, we’ve increased our GDP forecasts in 15 large EMs. However, our Q2 nowcasts are indicating slowing momentum, particularly though investment weakness. We pencil a greater drag from past policy tightening on activity in 2024 that will contribute to easing core inflation momentum. This will allow most EMs to cut ahead of the Fed, with risks tilted to a faster normalisation.

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Webinar
What next for commodity prices? Discussing the outlook amid slowing global growth

with Stephen Hare, Kiran Ahmed, Toby Whittington and Diego Cacciapuoti | Online | June 22, 2023

Initial optimism about demand, following China’s abrupt reopening has now given way to concerns amid tightening monetary policy in advanced economies and a lacklustre Chinese industrial recovery. We outline the implications for commodity markets and prices as well as risks to our baseline view.

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Webinar
Stagflation et hausse des taux, où sont les bonnes nouvelles?

with Pierre Delage and Daniela Ordonez | Online | June 20, 2023

Alors que la France et la zone euro semblent enlisées dans la stagflation, les Etats-Unis montrent des signes étonnants de résilience face à la Fed, au moins pour le moment. La Chine déconfinée, elle, se montre en apparence contra-cyclique avec de la croissance et une tendance déflationniste. Dans ce contexte, qu’attendre au S2 2023 en termes d’inflation, de politique monétaire et de croissance?

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Webinar
Latin America: is the worst behind us?

with Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene | Online | June 13, 2023

Strong post-pandemic recovery and high commodity prices provided a surprising momentum to Latin America that extended well into 2023. However, economic cycles are decoupling. Economies like Chile and Argentina are already feeling the hangover from prior overheating, while the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, could still feel the pain of a global recession later this year or in 2024. In this webinar, we dissect growth divergence in the region and what it means for the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.

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Webinar
UK Macro – Have we reached the end of the rate hiking cycle?

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | May 15, 2023

In February, when Bank Rate was increased to 4%, the MPC sent a clear message that it felt its job was almost done. But since then activity has been firmer than expected and fiscal policy has been loosened, while data on wages and inflation have surprised on the upside, leading markets to expect that Bank Rate will move close to 5% by year-end. In this webinar we will provide an update on the outlook for monetary policy, looking back on the May MPC meeting and presenting some of our recent work on labour market tightness and the outlook for wage growth.

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Webinar
The worst is likely over, but growth will be subdued

with Daniel Kral, Rory Fennessy, Lawrence Harper-Scott and Nico Palesch | Online | April 28, 2023

The Nordic economies are particularly exposed to high inflation and rising rates, given the high indebtedness of their private sectors and prevalence of variable rate loans. Activity has so far surprised on the upside in early 2023, but tight financial conditions and depressed real incomes will weigh on growth later this year and into 2024. In this webinar, we will address the main drivers of the near-term outlook, namely the impact of inflation and monetary policy tightening on the real economy and the banking sectors, as well as our view on Nordic industry, commercial real estate and cities performance.

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Webinar
Global scenarios: Policy peril

with Jamie Thompson and Manuela Kiehl | Online | March 13, 2023

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service, including the sensitivity of monetary policy and economic activity to near-term price developments. We highlight in particular the potential implications for the global economy of a stronger Chinese recovery and higher-than-expected inflation.

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