Events and Webinars

We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
Emerging markets key economic themes for 2025

with Evghenia Sleptsova, Gabriel Sterne and Sergi Lanau | Online | December 4, 2024

We present our views on the impact on EMs of the Trump presidency, key trends and outlook for sovereign risk, monetary policy outlook and the implications of a prolonged period of hawkishness, and top macro and asset calls for 2025

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Webinar
Eurozone economic key themes for 2025

with Angel Talavera | Online | December 2, 2024

We explore the main themes shaping the outlook for the eurozone next year. After years of multiple shocks, monetary and fiscal policy will become again the main factors driving the economic outlook. But Trump’s return to the White House and the threat of a trade war will present a key risk to the open European economy.

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Webinar
Asia key economic themes for 2025

with Arup Raha | Online | November 26, 2024

We look at the key themes likely to play out in Asian economies over 2025. In particular, we look at the effects of likely US trade and monetary policy. Within Asiam, we discuss how China is likely to responds to a structural domestic slowdown and external headwinds. Lastly, we look at how AI may shape Asia's growth story.

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Webinar
Global economic key themes for 2025

with Ben May | Online | November 20, 2024

There is a strong consensus amongst forecasters that global growth is likely to hold broadly stable next year. While we see little reason to disagree, in our latest webinar we highlight the key themes which we think will have a crucial bearing on next year's likely relative winners and losers.

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Webinar
What 2025 and a second Trump presidency holds for Latin America

with Tim Hunter and Mauricio Monge | Online | September 27, 2024

Growth dynamics next year will differ across Latin America's six largest economies – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru – but most economies will experience an acceleration in growth. However, this contrasts with a consumer outlook which is losing steam, and instead we see investment and trade as driving higher growth in 2025. This will come with support from US and domestic monetary policy easing, as inflation will broadly be at target. We will explore the stories affecting individual economies, such as the risk of judicial reform in Mexico to investment and the impact of President Milei’s radical reforms in Argentina. November will bring the US presidential election, and we will examine the impacts on Latin America of a new trade war under a second Trump presidency.

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Webinar
Treading carefully on the path to recovery

with Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani | Online | September 24, 2024

The recovery continues but shows signs of cracking, and some measures of inflation keep dragging their feet. Shaky confidence casts doubt on growth shifting up a gear, whilst the European Central Bank remains reluctant to signal a much looser monetary policy. Will growth lose steam amidst an industrial sector still in the doldrums? Will the ECB wreck the ship in its effort to tame inflation? The eurozone economy had a decent first half of the year, but the pace of the recovery going forward remains highly uncertain.

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Webinar
Industrial recovery struggles to gain momentum

with Abby Samp and Dominic Dobryniewski | Online | September 23, 2024

Industrial production growth has improved relative to last year, but still trails the broader economy. The cycle has bottomed out and remains on course for a gradual recovery, but the lagged impact of past monetary policy tightening and continued central bank caution around inflation, particularly in Europe, means momentum will take time to build. Join us for a full summary of the outlook across key sectors.

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Webinar
UK fiscal and monetary policy at a crossroads

with Edward Allenby and Andrew Goodwin | Online | August 12, 2024

It’s been an important few weeks for UK economic policy. New Chancellor Rachel Reeves has started to lay the ground for tax rises, beyond the increases set out in Labour’s manifesto, in the Budget on October 30. Meanwhile, the Bank of England has cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years, and signalled that further cuts are in the pipeline. We will offer our take on where fiscal and monetary policy will go from here, and set out the impact the changes will have on our UK economic forecast.

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Webinar
Inflation to fall further as ‘wartime characteristics’ fade

with Adam Slater and Ben May | Online | July 24, 2024

We show how the outburst of inflation in 2021-2023 can be traced in large part to ‘wartime’-style fiscal and monetary policies and pandemic-related distortions to labour and product markets. We also outline how these sources of inflationary pressure are now receding, which points to inflation rates in the G7 continuing to fall to 2% or lower this year and next.

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Webinar
Outlook gospodarczy dla Polski w świetle prognoz dla gospodarki światowej i europejskiej

with Mateusz Urban | Online | May 21, 2024

A divergence has opened in the world economy, with the US faring much better than China and the eurozone on the growth front. During the webinar, we will shed light on our thinking about world and European outlooks and their influence on the CEE region in general and the Polish economy in particular. We will scrutinize both growth and inflation prospects, views on monetary and fiscal policies as well as implications for FX and bond yields performance.

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Webinar
UK monetary policy outlook: short- and long-term

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | May 16, 2024

We will reflect on the messages from May’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, analysing whether a summer rate cut remains on the table. We will then move on to look at how restrictive the Bank of England’s monetary policy stance is and how far rates might fall in this rate cutting cycle, introducing our estimates of the long-run UK neutral interest rate.

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Webinar
Economics of a second Trump presidency

with Ryan Sweet and Bernard Yaros | Online | April 29, 2024

Continuing our series of analyses on the 2024 election, we modeled the macroeconomic impact of a second Donald Trump presidency. If the former president wins on Election Day, he will most likely return to the White House with Republican majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate. Assuming full Republican control of government after the 2024 election, we constructed two scenarios that bookend a range of outcomes for the US economy. This webinar will discuss the results of the Trump scenarios, including for inflation, GDP, monetary policy, trade and immigration.

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Webinar
Rising US economy not lifting all boats

with Barbara Denham and Bernard Yaros | Online | April 24, 2024

The US economy is doing well because of the strength of the labour market, past easing in financial market conditions and solid household and non-financial corporate balance sheets. Some of these supports will fade through the remainder of this year and the Federal Reserve could wait too long to begin normalizing monetary policy. The supply side of the economy is key to the outlook. Business formations will likely soften, and immigration will provide less support to labour force growth. Tune in to this webinar to learn more about the economy’s prospects, along with a focus on how metro areas differ in the labour market and immigration as a rising US economy hasn’t lifted all boats evenly.

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Webinar
Central and Eastern Europe: More uneven than ever?

with Mateusz Urban and Tomas Dvorak | Online | April 3, 2024

A wide gap in economic performance has opened in the usually homogenous CEE region. Poland, Romania and, to a lesser extent, Slovakia have been consistently outperforming their Czech and Hungarian peers. We expect this divergence to narrow only partially in the near term. The gap in growth permeates into other economic areas too – the outperformers have to contend with more persistent, demand-driven inflation, halting the plans to loosen historically tight monetary policy. Many of the CEE governments have also been unusually fiscally active. We’ll be exploring the diverging macro outlook for the CEE region and some strategy implications in this EM webinar.

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Webinar
Latin America Regional Outlook – Growth turns a corner as monetary policy eases

with Tim Hunter and Debora Reyna Garcia | Online | March 13, 2024

In this webinar, we will review the regional outlook for Latin America. Central banks have largely triumphed in taming high inflation, but at a cost to output. Prospects should improve in the second half of this year, but there are important growth stories to uncover across countries. Key to this will be consumer spending, which has shown varying degrees of resilience to the high interest rates of the past few years. We will also review our latest research, with a focus on the outlook for monetary policy. This will be key for markets, with Mexico yet to start easing whereas Chile nears the end of its cycle.

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Webinar
Will lower inflation mean the MPC cuts rates faster?

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | February 15, 2024

The UK inflation outlook has been transformed by steep falls in oil and gas prices and a softening in core price pressures and we think there’s a good chance that inflation will be back at the 2% target in April. The case for loosening monetary policy looks strong, but will the MPC agree? In this webinar we look at how the inflation and monetary policy outlooks will evolve in 2024.

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Webinar
Global Valve and Actuator

with Kiran Ahmed and Jeremy Leonard | Online | November 30, 2023

In partnership with the British Valve and Actuator Association, the latest edition of our annual Global Valve and Actuator Market Outlook highlights that across most markets, fundamental demand conditions for valve and actuator consumption remain soft. Tight monetary policy will continue to weigh on economic activity, limiting activity in valve end-use markets and investment spending more generally.

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Webinar
UK Key Themes for 2024

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | November 29, 2023

Our final UK webinar of the year looks at what we can expect to see in 2024. Though the inflation shock is fading, consumers will remain under pressure as the impact of tighter monetary policy continues to emerge. Companies will also feel the pinch, with high debt servicing costs the latest in a series of problems they’ve had to deal with. But it’s not all bad news. The labour market appears to be headed for a relatively soft landing. And with a general election fast approaching, we’ll discuss whether the fiscal policy landscape is likely to change.

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Webinar
Monetary policy puzzles

with Arup Raha | Online | November 15, 2023

There is significant uncertainty as Asian economies approach the new year. There are two wars being fought, China faces structural headwinds, and we are not fully sure of the damage to the balance sheets of firms and households from Covid. Plus, higher oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and high US bond yields are restricting what policymakers in Asia can do. We try and wade through all this and arrive at the most likely outlook for Asian economies.

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Webinar
Identifying attractive EM local bonds

with Lucila Bonilla and Tomas Dvorak | Online | November 14, 2023

Disinflation momentum, weakening economic activity, high real rates, and attractive term premia explain our positive view on EM local currency debt. Weak growth raises the risk of inflation undershoots and faster monetary policy normalisation in Central and Eastern Europe. Latin America’s disinflation progressed smoothly, but growth outperformed expectations this year, prompting shallower normalisation paths. Markets price in too few rate cuts in some of these economies. We continue to tilt our local currency debt portfolio into these regions and will lay the case for our preferred stories.

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