Identifying attractive EM local bonds
Date: Tuesday 14 November 2023
Disinflation momentum, weakening economic activity, high real rates, and attractive term premia explain our positive view on EM local currency debt. Weak growth raises the risk of inflation undershoots and faster monetary policy normalisation in Central and Eastern Europe. Latin America’s disinflation progressed smoothly, but growth outperformed expectations this year, prompting shallower normalisation paths. Markets price in too few rate cuts in some of these economies. We continue to tilt our local currency debt portfolio into these regions and will lay the case for our preferred stories.
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Lucila Bonilla
Global EM Senior Economist
+44 (0) 203 910 8144
Lucila Bonilla
Global EM Senior Economist
London, United Kingdom
Lucila holds a BA in Economics and a master’s degree in Economics of Public Policy from the Barcelona School of Economics. Her research focuses on emerging markets macro and strategy, along with country-specific coverage of Argentina and Uruguay. She joined Oxford Economics after working at one of LatAm’s top economic think tanks and several international organisations (ECLAC, UNDP, OECD).
Tomas Dvorak
Senior Economist
+44 (0) 203 910 8150
Tomas Dvorak
Senior Economist
London, United Kingdom
Tomas is a Senior Economist in the Macro and Investor Services’ eurozone team. He oversees the coverage of Central and Eastern Europe in addition to producing thematic research on the eurozone and developing modern, data-driven approaches to economic forecasting, including the use of alternative and high-frequency data.
Tomas holds an MA in economics from the University of Glasgow and an MSc in economics from the University College London. He previously worked as a data scientist at KPMG and as an advisor in the European Parliament.
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