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Webinar
Asia’s medium term growth outlook and its implications for major cities

with Arup Raha and Scott McEwan | Online | February 28, 2024

Over the next five years, economic growth across Asia is likely to diverge especially with two of the giants moving in opposite directions; China slowing and India starting to realise its potential. This has implications for how the cities in these two countries are likely to expand. Major cities in southeast Asia area expected to perform relatively well but there are contrasting fortunes elsewhere. For example, in advanced Asia, the major cities of Australia should exhibit an impressive rate of jobs growth. Our expectations for the likes of Melbourne and Perth contrasts starkly with major East Asian cities in Japan and South Korea, where the pressures of ageing populations is dragging on the potential for growth in output and jobs. We present both a top-down medium-term macro outlook and tie that to how major cities in Asia are likely to develop over the next 5 years.

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Webinar
Key themes for cities in 2024: Cities that will be driving growth in 2024

with Anthony Light and Mark Britton | Online | January 18, 2024

In what will likely be another challenging year for the global economy, attention will increasingly focus on identifying the most resilient cities, and those that will be leading the way forward for their national economies. In this webinar we will present our short-term forecasts for major cities in North America, Asia and Europe, and discuss the key themes that underpin our projections.

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Webinar
Monetary policy puzzles

with Arup Raha | Online | November 15, 2023

There is significant uncertainty as Asian economies approach the new year. There are two wars being fought, China faces structural headwinds, and we are not fully sure of the damage to the balance sheets of firms and households from Covid. Plus, higher oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and high US bond yields are restricting what policymakers in Asia can do. We try and wade through all this and arrive at the most likely outlook for Asian economies.

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Webinar
Asia’s tug of war as China grows and the US slows

with Arup Raha | Online | June 7, 2023

While the pandemic is effectively over, its aftershocks remain for Asian economies. Balance sheets of households, firms and government will need rebuilding and bottlenecks will need to be eased. Plus, policy space is limited and the extent of the structural dislocations are not fully known. Unlike in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis or the Global Financial Crisis, Asia’s growth recovery is likely to be more difficult. Plus, a spotlight on China. There is a post-Covid growth bounce but is it sustainable? We look at tussle between the cyclical pick up and the structural drag on the economy. What does the medium-term future look like?

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Webinar
Implications of heightened costs and global recession on Asia construction

with April Skinner and Nicholas Fearnley | Online | May 24, 2023

2023 is expected to remain challenging for global construction, buffeted by still heightened construction costs and cooling global demand. Despite the near-term challenges, the outlook is strong, with Emerging Asia forecast to buck the trend. Please join us to discuss the outlook for construction activity in Asia, including the key issues and risks facing the sector.

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Webinar
The short-term outlook for the world’s largest cities

with Aedan McCotter, Anthony Light, Dmitriy Gruzinov and Scott McEwan | Online | April 13, 2023

The economic outlook for 2023 is a little brighter than it was at the start of the year, although recent developments in the banking sector add to downside risks. And labour markets in many major cities are set for a tough year with jobs growth slowing. Following the publication of our latest city forecasts, in this webinar we will discuss the short term employment outlook for major cities in North America, Europe and Asia.

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Webinar
Asian Economic Outlook for 2023

with Arup Raha and Gabriel Sterne | Online | November 16, 2022

Asian economies are no strangers to economic shocks but this time is different. In particular, China’s growth has faltered, the Fed is raising rates, and energy prices are high. This combination is unprecedented. Moreover, there is limited counter-cyclical policy space. Arup Raha will present the Asia team’s outlook on the upcoming year – the likely outcomes and main risks.

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Webinar
EMs vulnerable but far from the epicentre of the global storm

with Lucila Bonilla and Maya Senussi | Online | October 21, 2022

Growth in EMs faces intensifying headwinds but to a lesser extent than in advanced economies. Although the medium-term outlook looks weaker compared to last month, we expect pace of growth to slow only slightly in 2023 – backstopped by Asia’s protracted recovery. Several other factors will help mitigate risks: monetary policies having been ahead of the curve, overall resilience in the terms of trade, and a less sharp depreciation against the US dollar compared to other advanced economies.

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Webinar
Asian monetary policy and FX outlook amid aggressive Fed tightening

Online | August 18, 2022

There are several large shocks currently affecting Asian economies: a hawkish Fed; sluggish Chinese growth; and high energy prices. To this add a US dollar that is stronger than it has been in about 20 years. How are Asian economies likely to navigate these turbulent times? Our economists will focus on the likely direction of monetary policy in Asian and the consequent path of key financial variables in the region.

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Webinar
Will Asia construction survive rising construction costs?

with April Skinner, Dr Nicholas Fearnley and Luka Raznatovic | Online | June 7, 2022

The construction sector has seen a surge in activity following the gradual fading in Covid restrictions across different countries. However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and continued lockdowns in China have further exacerbated supply chain constraints and increasing construction costs. In this webinar we will discuss the outlook for construction activity in Asia including the risks and implications of increasing construction costs.

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Webinar
Asia: What do rising inflation pressures mean for growth

with Priyanka Kishore and Tommy Wu | Online | May 6, 2022

Asia’s inflation troubles have increased with rising import prices adding on to upside pressures from domestic sources. We forecast consumer inflation to keep rising into Q3 but remain within manageable levels. Risks to our inflation view are to the upside.

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Webinar
What can alternative data tell us about relative economic performance?

Online | September 29, 2021

Topic: The speed with which the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the global economy forced economists to supplement their ‘traditional’ data sources with unconventional indicators. By tracking mobility data, stringency of restrictions indices and health outcomes and their relationship with GDP, employment and other key outcomes, we can now see in near-real time the economic fallout of the pandemic. The emergence of the Delta variant has made this intelligence invaluable. Asian countries with low tolerance levels for COVID are seeing growth momentum soften (and even reverse, in the case of Australia and New Zealand), while high vaccination rates have enabled an easing of restrictions in Europe and North America. In this webinar our Chief Economist, Dr Sarah Hunter and the Regional Manager for Macrobond Ian Hissey will discuss what we’ve learnt about the impact of COVID and restrictions on national economies over the last 18 months, what the alternative indicators tell us about current economic conditions, and how the recovery may evolve from here. Please note that we will be holding one webinar each for Americas, APAC and EMEA friendly time zones: APAC - Wednesday 29th September| 13:00 AEST EMEA - Thursday 30th September | 10:00 BST Americas - Thursday 30th September| 16:00 EST

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