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EMs vulnerable but far from the epicentre of the global storm

Growth in EMs faces intensifying headwinds but to a lesser extent than in advanced economies. Although the medium-term outlook looks weaker compared to last month, we expect pace of growth to slow only slightly in 2023 – backstopped by Asia’s protracted recovery. Several other factors will help mitigate risks: monetary policies having been ahead of the curve, overall resilience in the terms of trade, and a less sharp depreciation against the US dollar compared to other advanced economies.

Lucila Bonilla

Global EM Senior Economist

+44 (0) 203 910 8144

Lucila Bonilla

Global EM Senior Economist

London, United Kingdom

Lucila holds a BA in Economics and a master’s degree in Economics of Public Policy from the Barcelona School of Economics. Her research focuses on emerging markets macro and strategy, along with country-specific coverage of Argentina and Uruguay. She joined Oxford Economics after working at one of LatAm’s top economic think tanks and several international organisations (ECLAC, UNDP, OECD).

Maya Senussi

Lead Economist

+44 (0) 203 910 8121

Maya Senussi

Lead Economist

London, United Kingdom

Maya Senussi is responsible for Oxford Economics’ forecasting and research in the Middle East team, with a specific focus on Turkey and several GCC economies. She has nearly fifteen years of experience in the macro research industry working as an Emerging Markets economist.

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