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May - June 2019

  • The global economy has seen a lacklustre start to 2019, entering its third slowdown since 2010. We expect global growth this year to be a little weaker than in 2018, at 2.8%, and then to stay stuck in a lower gear with the same pace of expansion in 2020.
  • Underlying financial conditions, a manufacturing upturn and stabilising activity in China are supportive of the outlook.
  • But with fiscal support set to wane and US-China trade relations again looking more fractious a rebound is unlikely and risks are tilted to the downside.
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  • Bloomberg highlights capital flows research by OE's Guillermo Tolosa that suggests US #Treasuries could be vulnerable to a sell-off as long-running support from #QE ends so that current low yields may not last: via @markets

  • With the broad MSCI index tracking #EM currencies falling to its lowest level since early January today and the #lira in Turkey down ~2% find out more about how our #FX Risk tool pinpoints FX hotspots, and can help predict looming currency crises:

  • After further attacks on #oil tankers in the Gulf, #Brent crude saw its sharpest one-day rise in a month, rising 1.5% to $71.70. We see increased risks of significantly higher oil prices and examine the impact of $100 a barrel crude:

  • Our FX Risk Tool provides a composite measure of vulnerability to #currencycrisis, measuring risks of sharp currency falls and is a strong leading indicator of currency crises, our testing shows:

  • Sharp EM currency falls today highlight the prospect of further FX volatility in EMs. Despite significant adjustments since last year, the #Argentina peso #ARS and #Turkey lira #TRY are still the two #currencies most vulnerable, our new #FXRisk tool shows:

  • New US #tariffs on China threaten to derail a nascent recovery in business confidence shown by our new Global Risk Survey. Business gloom had started to abate with 20% of respondents seeing the risk of a sharp slowdown declining in the past 3 mnths:

  • In #Canada, broad-based weakness in the economy leaves the #BankofCanada on hold, but it sees a pick-up in H2, with 2020 growth f/cast to rise to 2.1%. We disagree and see growth of 1.1% this yr and 1.2% next - which would make BoC's next move a rate cut: