Evaluating policy pathways to end plastic pollution

A study for The International Council of Chemical Associations (ICCA)

This report assesses the environmental and economic trade-offs of alternative policy approaches to reducing global plastic pollution.

Using a structural economic model, we compare an upstream cap on virgin plastics production with policy packages that strengthen waste collection, recycling, and circularity, including more targeted interventions and trade in recyclable waste. Alongside the modelling, the report also draws on lessons from past multilateral environmental agreements to identify practical implications for treaty design and implementation.

Building on ICCA’s earlier report, Mapping the Plastics Value Chain, this study moves from describing how plastics flow through the global economy to evaluating the consequences of different policy interventions. The analysis finds that policies focused on improving waste collection, recycling, and circularity can achieve the same reduction in plastic leakage as an upstream cap on virgin plastics production, while delivering significantly greater recycling gains and substantially lower economic costs. These findings highlight the importance of targeting the drivers of mismanaged waste directly, rather than relying primarily on broad restrictions on plastics production.

Tags:

Global plastic pollution ICCA

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The experts behind the research

Alice Gambarin

Associate Director, Economic Impact

Alice Gambarin

Associate Director, Economic Impact

Alice is part of Oxford Economics’ consulting division in the Americas, focusing on delivering socio-economic impact studies to clients across the continent.

Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Alice worked in the Housing Analysis Division at the UK Department for Work and Pensions, where she was involved in policy evaluation and data analysis. Alice holds a BA (Hons) and MSc (Hons) in Economic and Social Sciences from Bocconi University, Italy.
Sofia De Martin

Economist, Economic Impact

Sofia De Martin

Economist, Economic Impact
David Jones

Associate Director, Economic Impact

David Jones

Associate Director, Economic Impact

David is an Associate Director in Oxford Economics' Economic Impact Consulting team, which he joined in 2021. He works across economic and computable general equilibrium modelling, econometrics, and applications of data science and machine learning to economics, advising private sector and government clients on the economic effects of policy. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of East Anglia, alongside degrees in Mathematics from the University of Cambridge and Imperial College London.
Nishaal Gooroochurn

Head of Applied Econometrics and CGE Modelling, Economic Impact

Nishaal Gooroochurn

Head of Applied Econometrics and CGE Modelling, Economic Impact

Dr Nishaal Gooroochurn is Director and Head of CGE and Applied Econometrics at Oxford Economics. A specialist in GTAP and computable general equilibrium modelling, he assesses the economic effects of tax, trade, and environmental policy for governments and international organisations. He previously led CGE modelling and income-tax analytics at HM Treasury. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Nottingham.