OE Logo

Consulting Report
11 Nov 2026

Pakistan’s Tariff Regime: Comparative Perspective

Tariff, para-tariff and implication for export strategy

The National Tariff Policy 2025–30 (NTP) presents Pakistan’s average tariff, including para-tariffs, as higher than those of eight comparator economies: India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Thailand, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Vietnam. This report reassesses the NTP’s international comparisons by examining Pakistan’s customs duties and para-tariffs on a consistent basis alongside those of the nine comparator economies, including Türkiye. The analysis incorporates Pakistan’s recent tariff reforms and available data for the comparator countries.

Pakistan’s average customs duties are in the middle of the study-country range. Its simple-average most-favoured-nation (MFN) tariff is 9.5%, below those of India, Bangladesh and Nepal and equal to Vietnam’s. Its trade-weighted average is 6.7%, also in the middle of the group.

Moving beyond average tariff levels, the analysis of tariff peaks shows that Pakistan’s share of high-duty tariff lines is comparable to the regional level. In 2025, 31.0% of its tariff lines carried duties above 15%, compared with the five-country South Asian average of 30.7%, placing Pakistan fourth among the ten study economies.

Pakistan compares more favourably with its peers when higher thresholds are used to define tariff peaks. A separate sensitivity analysis using common-year 2023 data places Pakistan below the South Asian study-country average at thresholds of 25%, 35% and 50%. This suggests a concentration of moderately high duties rather than an unusually large share of extreme rates compared to regional peers.

Including para-tariffs changes the comparison, but does not make Pakistan uniquely high among the selected economies. Its estimated combined simple average of tariffs and para-tariffs is 17.7%, compared with 28.1% for Bangladesh, 19.3% for Sri Lanka, 17.3% for Türkiye and 16.0% for India. Consistent treatment of these additional charges is therefore essential. Differences in data coverage, reference periods and policy changes mean these estimates remain a best-effort comparison, not a comprehensive measure of all import charges.

Overall, the data do not support the claim that Pakistan has the highest tariff levels among the economies compared. An analysis of simple average tariff rate and export as a share of GDP also show no clear correlation between the two. These findings suggest that Pakistan’s export strategy should rest on how reform would improve export competitiveness rather than on tariff reduction alone. Two broader implications are important going forward. First, tariff reform needs to sit within a broader package that strengthens exporters’ competitiveness, including improvements in energy, logistics, finance and skills. Second, amid rising protectionism, the sequencing of tariff reductions and trade negotiations deserves careful consideration. Preserving scope to offer preferential tariff concessions could help Pakistan negotiate reciprocal access to overseas markets.

Tags:

THIS REPORT WAS BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE MACRO CONSULTING SERVICE TEAM

Oxford Economics specialises in forecasting, economic impact analysis, and evidence-based thought leadership. Our economists and analysts draw from a rich database of figures and analysis on 200 countries, 100 sectors, and 7,000 cities and regions.
The experts behind the research
  • Thang Nguyen-Quoc

    Thang Nguyen-Quoc

    Associate Director, Macro Consulting
    Thang Nguyen-Quoc

    Associate Director, Macro Consulting

    Thang Nguyen-Quoc, Ph.D. leads Oxford Economics Asia’s Macro consulting team in Singapore. In this capacity, he supports clients with carrying out bespoke forecast and scenario modelling, as well as thought-leadership reports on trade and green transition. His core expertise is in policy analysis related to international trade and investment. His doctoral thesis evaluated the impacts of digitalization, protectionism and regionalism on the trade patterns of developing countries, using a range of econometric techniques.

    Prior to joining OE in 2022, Thang spent a decade delivering flagship economic reports on Asian and African economies at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Paris. He also worked in various roles at the World Bank, National Academy of Social Sciences (US), and Vietnam Commercial Bank. He got a Ph.D. in International Economics from University Paris-Dauphine, M.Sc. from Barcelona School of Economics and B.A. from Ohio Wesleyan University.

  • Zi Cheng Kok

    Zi Cheng Kok

    Economist, Asia Consulting
    Zi Cheng Kok

    Economist, Asia Consulting

    Zi Cheng joined Oxford Economics in 2026 after 4 years at the World Bank Fiscal Policy and Growth, where he worked on topics spanning macroeconomic projections and trade policies evaluations, among others. He also bring expertise in fintech and cryptocurrency, both as a former founder and an economic researcher. 

    Zi Cheng holds a MSc. in Economics from the Singapore Management University, specializing in Quantitative Economics and Econometrics and a BA (highest distinction) in Economics from the Nanyang Technological University.

    Get instant access to read this report

    Get in touch

    Learn more about this report or how our team could support you:

    You might be interested in

    US Tech Spend Forecasts

    Plug into success with unparalleled IT spending market intelligence

    Industry Scenarios

    Quantifying the impact of policy changes and other risk events on industrial sectors.