We will argue emerging markets (EMs), and results in a sweet-tasting outlook for EM risk assets (eg equities). But prepare for the sour-tasting outer layers of the sandwich, which represent risks of AI-related reversals and tariff policy resurgence, the latter of which leads us to remain underweight EM FX.
Within emerging markets, we shall highlight some of our high conviction calls, Emerging Asia are the quiet winners of trade rewiring so far, while we shall argue that Mexican demand will be held up by a new trade deal. We will share our analysis of key frontier markets, which currently offer a mixture of lucrative rewards (eg. Egyptian bonds), solid performance(Pakistan’s IMF programme) and some truly shocking debt stories (Senegal’s debt).
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Speakers
Gabriel Sterne
Gabriel delivers macro-economic products tailored for corporates and financial markets, as head of a team that integrates EM macro and strategy views. In recent years he has published wide-ranging research including on stagflation risks, monetary policy credibility, global savings, demographics, Covid scarring, risks and resilience in emerging markets, and sovereign crisis resolution. He joined from investment banking boutique Exotix in May 2014, following 20 years of public sector experience, including at the Bank of England and International Monetary Fund.
Head of Emerging Markets
Callee Davis
Prior to joining Oxford Economics Africa in 2019, she garnered experience at Economic Research Southern Africa, the UNESCO Institute for Lifelong Learning and the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea.
Senior Economist, Global EM Team
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