Webinar

US: A jobless expansion

3 December 2025 – 10.00am EST (New York)
online

The economy is in the midst of a jobless expansion, or at least barreling toward one.

This isn’t just a current risk, it could become the norm in the coming years. In a jobless expansion, GDP increases but employment gains are modest, at best. This leaves the economy vulnerable to adverse shocks because the labor market acts as the primary firewall against the onset of a recession. Large, sustained increases in unemployment usually trigger a vicious cycle that often culminates in a recession. A jobless expansion will contribute to the bifurcated economy in 2026, which will be another year where the health of the economy depends on who you ask.

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Speakers

Ryan Sweet
Ryan Sweet

Ryan Sweet is the Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics. He is responsible for forecasting and assessing the US macroeconomic outlook and how it will influence monetary policy and financial markets. Ryan is among the most accurate high-frequency forecasters of the U.S. economy, according to MarketWatch and Bloomberg LP.

Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Ryan led real-time economics at Moody’s Analytics and was a member of the U.S. macroeconomics team. He was also head of the firm’s monetary policy research, following actions by the Federal Reserve and examining its potential impact on the U.S. economy.

Ryan is an adjunct professor in the Economics and Finance Department at West Chester University of Pennsylvania. He received a master’s degree in finance from John’s Hopkins University, a master’s degree in economics from the University of Delaware, and a bachelor’s degree in economics from Washington College.

Chief US Economist
Michael Pearce
Michael Pearce

Michael Pearce is the Deputy Chief US Economist based in New York City, sharing responsibility for forecasting the US economy and monetary policy. He has a particular focus on the US consumer and inflation. Before joining Oxford Economics, Michael worked for the Treasury in the UK, and was a senior member of the US economics team at Capital Economics for more than a decade, and he lived and worked in the UK, US, and Switzerland during that time. He has a masters degree in economic history from the London School of Economics, and a bachelors degree in economics from University College London.

Deputy Chief US Economist
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3 December 2025
10:00am EST
(New York)
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