The question of debt restructuring is becoming a more pressing one: in recent weeks, a number of African sovereigns have openly or discreetly mulled public debt reorganisation, called for debt relief, or suffered credit rating downgrades owing to rising default odds.

Data for Q3 on the volume of China’s imports of crude from Russia show a drop against the June level. Rather than an indication that China’s demand has peaked, this may be a sign that China is preparing for the Russian oil price cap recently agreed by G7 by shifting some of its purchases to the grey market.

Shipping port in Thailand, Asia

Manufacturing hubs in South East Asia are set to benefit from firms hedging against ongoing US-China frictions, in our view, and ASEAN countries will continue to be attractive destinations for investment.

Businesses continue to downgrade their expectations for the global economy, based on our latest survey of risk perceptions. On average, respondents judge there’s a 47% probability of a global recession over the next 12 months.

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Ukraine

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Research Briefing | Sep 13, 2022

Kharkiv defeat has limited significance for global economy

Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv in the north-east of the country has stoked hopes of a Ukraine victory and perhaps even regime-change in Russia, with global markets rallying on the news. But we think prospects of a speedy resolution to the conflict, or even a ceasefire, are remote.

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Research Briefing | Sep 13, 2022

Kharkiv defeat has limited significance for global economy

Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv in the north-east of the country has stoked hopes of a Ukraine victory and perhaps even regime-change in Russia, with global markets rallying on the news. But we think prospects of a speedy resolution to the conflict, or even a ceasefire, are remote.

Grain

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Research Briefing | Aug 22, 2022

Analysing the likely effects of the Istanbul grain deal

Ipad Frame instanbul

If successful, the Turkey-brokered deal between Russia and Ukraine to unblock Ukraine’s ports and facilitate grain exports would be highly beneficial for the Ukrainian and global economies. However, numerous risks – both political and operational – may jeopardise the success of this deal in the medium term.

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Research Briefing | Aug 22, 2022

Analysing the likely effects of the Istanbul grain deal

Ipad Frame instanbul

If successful, the Turkey-brokered deal between Russia and Ukraine to unblock Ukraine’s ports and facilitate grain exports would be highly beneficial for the Ukrainian and global economies. However, numerous risks – both political and operational – may jeopardise the success of this deal in the medium term.

gas pipeline

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Research Briefing | Aug 18, 2022

Power of Siberia 2 is no replacement for pipelines to Europe

Power of Siberia 2 is no replacement for pipelines to Europe After the West and its allies imposed sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine, President Putin announced a radical rehaul of the country’s development strategy, with a pivot towards Asia. For now, though, Russia is stuck with a gas pipeline system built to supply Europe. If a resolution to the European gas crisis is not reached, then a lot of Russian gas may remain in the ground.

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Research Briefing | Aug 18, 2022

Power of Siberia 2 is no replacement for pipelines to Europe

Power of Siberia 2 is no replacement for pipelines to Europe After the West and its allies imposed sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine, President Putin announced a radical rehaul of the country’s development strategy, with a pivot towards Asia. For now, though, Russia is stuck with a gas pipeline system built to supply Europe. If a resolution to the European gas crisis is not reached, then a lot of Russian gas may remain in the ground.

Russia

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Research Briefing | Aug 16, 2022

Russia: Each side could gain from easing of gas war

Each side could gain from easing of gas war In early August, Russia’s Gazprom refused to accept a Siemens’ turbine used in Nord Stream 1, citing technical issues. Gazprom is seeking EU guarantees that the latter won’t impose sanctions. Such promises may not be forthcoming, however, so Gazprom could stop exporting gas via Nord Stream 1 to Europe in the coming weeks. Still, we expect any disruption to be temporary. Europe is replacing Russian natural gas with LNG imported from elsewhere, mostly the US.

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Research Briefing | Aug 16, 2022

Russia: Each side could gain from easing of gas war

Each side could gain from easing of gas war In early August, Russia’s Gazprom refused to accept a Siemens’ turbine used in Nord Stream 1, citing technical issues. Gazprom is seeking EU guarantees that the latter won’t impose sanctions. Such promises may not be forthcoming, however, so Gazprom could stop exporting gas via Nord Stream 1 to Europe in the coming weeks. Still, we expect any disruption to be temporary. Europe is replacing Russian natural gas with LNG imported from elsewhere, mostly the US.

Semiconductors are central to Europe’s digital and green transformation and therefore its future competitiveness. The Industry Outlook 2030+ The Semiconductor Industry examines the status quo and future development of the semiconductor industry in Europe and Germany, the most important European semiconductor location.

Black sea

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Research Briefing | Jul 21, 2022

All eyes on the Black Sea in the face of a looming food crisis

All eyes on the Black Sea in the face of a looming food crisis

With its Black Sea ports under blockade, Ukraine’s grain silos are brimming with millions of tons of cereals, with no way of being exported. Meanwhile, developing countries dependent on grain from Ukraine face a looming food crisis. Between January and April this year, Ukraine’s exports plunged 58% y/y in terms of volume – meaning that during the period the world was shy some 7% of its normal trade levels of cereals, 3% of sunflower oil, and 2.2% of ferrous metals. And since then, the shortage has only grown.

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Research Briefing | Jul 21, 2022

All eyes on the Black Sea in the face of a looming food crisis

All eyes on the Black Sea in the face of a looming food crisis

With its Black Sea ports under blockade, Ukraine’s grain silos are brimming with millions of tons of cereals, with no way of being exported. Meanwhile, developing countries dependent on grain from Ukraine face a looming food crisis. Between January and April this year, Ukraine’s exports plunged 58% y/y in terms of volume – meaning that during the period the world was shy some 7% of its normal trade levels of cereals, 3% of sunflower oil, and 2.2% of ferrous metals. And since then, the shortage has only grown.

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Research Briefing | Apr 25, 2022

Technological decoupling is the real deglobalisation threat

Deglobalisation is unlikely to be a “big bang” but more a creeping tide of targeted measures by individual countries, in our view. Sanctions on Russia and US-China tensions have shown that technology and the flow of knowledge are at the frontier of economic decoupling.

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Research Briefing | Apr 25, 2022

Technological decoupling is the real deglobalisation threat

Deglobalisation is unlikely to be a “big bang” but more a creeping tide of targeted measures by individual countries, in our view. Sanctions on Russia and US-China tensions have shown that technology and the flow of knowledge are at the frontier of economic decoupling.

Japan

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Research Briefing | Mar 31, 2022

Japan’s export will grow together with global trade

Japan | Export will grow together with global trade

Japan’s export share has remained stable at slightly below 5% since the mid-2010s, except for a brief swing before and after the global financial crisis. The fluctuation is best understood in the context of the adjustment by manufacturers to the increase in overseas production and shift towards higher value-added exports, as other Asian economies emerged as “Factory Asia.”

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Research Briefing | Mar 31, 2022

Japan’s export will grow together with global trade

Japan | Export will grow together with global trade

Japan’s export share has remained stable at slightly below 5% since the mid-2010s, except for a brief swing before and after the global financial crisis. The fluctuation is best understood in the context of the adjustment by manufacturers to the increase in overseas production and shift towards higher value-added exports, as other Asian economies emerged as “Factory Asia.”

From a climate change perspective, 2021 was another remarkable year. While not the warmest year on record, a host of extreme weather events and disasters – including extensive flooding in Germany, the Pacific Northwest, India, and China, as well as tornadoes in the American Midwest and Hurricane Ida striking the US South – impacted the global economy.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the evolving global response will be felt in the MENA economies mainly via the impact on commodity prices. Fuel exporters are near-term beneficiaries of oil around $110pb, which lifts export and budget revenues, but we estimate the higher price leads to a 0.1-0.4pp hit to GDP growth in regional energy importers this year.

Following Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the EU Commission has accelerated plans to phaseout Russian gas, with a two-thirds cut this year. To offset the cut, it aims to boost LNG imports and renewables. But we think the EU faces difficult trade-offs in juggling its goal to phase out Russian gas while avoiding economic damage and staying on course to fulfil its green ambitions.

A replacement for the EU-US Privacy Shield is long overdue. Without it, US-based companies are left at the mercy of European regulators who could at any time question their data protection practices. Here are steps US multinationals can take to protect their data and their bottom lines in lieu of a new agreement.

You may be interested in Global Economic Model Our Global Economic Model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and testing scenarios. Find Out More → Global Macro Service Monitor macro events and their potential impact. Find Out More →

shipping container

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Research Briefing | Jan 17, 2022

Global logistics challenges more than just port bottlenecks

Ipad Frame - Global logistics challenges more than just port bottlenecks

The pandemic has tested the adaptability and resilience of transport and logistics companies. With consumers focusing their spending on goods rather than on services during lockdowns, global container throughput regained its pre-pandemic level of activity relatively quickly. However, shortages across numerous dimensions—namely in labour, warehouse space, and truck trailers—have meant supply has struggled to keep pace with firm consumer demand.

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Research Briefing | Jan 17, 2022

Global logistics challenges more than just port bottlenecks

Ipad Frame - Global logistics challenges more than just port bottlenecks

The pandemic has tested the adaptability and resilience of transport and logistics companies. With consumers focusing their spending on goods rather than on services during lockdowns, global container throughput regained its pre-pandemic level of activity relatively quickly. However, shortages across numerous dimensions—namely in labour, warehouse space, and truck trailers—have meant supply has struggled to keep pace with firm consumer demand.

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Research Briefing | Dec 9, 2021

Africa Climate change: adaptation and mitigation

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Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on Africa. Therefore, the continent’s preparation in expectation of further global warming is key in lowering its contribution to carbon emissions and adapting to changes in climate.

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Research Briefing | Dec 9, 2021

Africa Climate change: adaptation and mitigation

Africa climate change ipad

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on Africa. Therefore, the continent’s preparation in expectation of further global warming is key in lowering its contribution to carbon emissions and adapting to changes in climate.