Research Briefing | Aug 22, 2022

Analysing the likely effects of the Istanbul grain deal

Ipad Frame instanbul

If successful, the Turkey-brokered deal between Russia and Ukraine to unblock Ukraine’s ports and facilitate grain exports would be highly beneficial for the Ukrainian and global economies. However, numerous risks – both political and operational – may jeopardise the success of this deal in the medium term.

What you will learn:

  • However, numerous risks – both political and operational – may jeopardise the success of this deal in the medium term.
  • We estimate that the blockade of Ukraine’s ports has reduced the country’s GDP by at least 7.3% compared to pre-war levels.

  • In a downside scenario where the deal collapses or has only a limited effect, grain exports still gradually increase but only to about 2.8mt per month.

Back to Resource Hub

Related posts

European cities - Rome

Service

European Macro Service

A complete service to help executives track, analyse and react to macro events and future trends for the European region.

Find Out More
globe

Service

Global Macro Service

Monitor macro events and their potential impact.

Find Out More
various country flags

Service

Global Economic Model

Our Global Economic Model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and testing scenarios.

Find Out More