Worried businesses see almost 50% chance of recession

Businesses continue to downgrade their expectations for the global economy, based on our latest survey of risk perceptions. On average, respondents judge there’s a 47% probability of a global recession over the next 12 months.

What you will learn:

• The risk of stagflation is also rising, according to businesses. Respondents see more than a 1-in-5 chance of a high-inflation regime scenario materialising.
• The perceived odds of more severe energy market disruption, including a rationing of natural gas in Europe, are even higher.
• The survey was completed by 172 businesses from September 5-15.