Research Briefing | Sep 13, 2022

Kharkiv defeat has limited significance for global economy

Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv in the north-east of the country has stoked hopes of a Ukraine victory and perhaps even regime-change in Russia, with global markets rallying on the news. But we think prospects of a speedy resolution to the conflict, or even a ceasefire, are remote.

What you will learn:

  • We doubt Russia would be willing to enter negotiations from a position of defeat. And even a military conclusion would not necessarily result in easing supply constraints in global commodity markets.
  • Russia has immediately responded by intensifying attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and is now pondering other military and economic measures.
  • It now also seems more likely that the flow of gas to Europe via Ukraine will stop ahead of winter.
Back to Resource Hub

Related services



Global Macro Service

Monitor macro events and their potential impact.

Find Out More
various country flags


Global Economic Model

Our Global Economic Model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and testing scenarios.

Find Out More