The Path to Recovery: Ukraine’s Reconstruction Scenarios
Ukraine’s reconstruction could take anywhere between 12 and 41 years, depending on the ceasefire scenario.
The size and timing of the Ukrainian reconstruction will be largely determined by the outcome of the ongoing conflict with Russia. We have identified three scenarios: (i) no ceasefire, (ii) a stable ceasefire, and (iii) a fragile ceasefire; each resulting in dramatically different reconstruction outcomes.
Our baseline forecast assumes a no ceasefire scenario, reflecting current political and military realities including stalled negotiations and continued Russian aggression. Under this scenario the reconstruction is constrained by persistent insecurity and lower investor confidence. The recent Trump–Putin summit in Alaska, which produced no agreement and left key territorial and security issues unresolved, further reinforces this outlook.
Each scenario assumes US$306.2bn in direct reconstruction spending, but the pace of disbursement and implementation varies significantly. Under our baseline scenario of no ceasefire, we estimate that reconstruction would take around 27.0 years. The stable ceasefire (negotiated on Ukraine’s terms) would see a faster reconstruction over 12.3 years, while the fragile ceasefire (negotiated on Russia’s terms) would see a more protracted recovery period of 40.8 years.
