Research Briefing
The odds of a recession have declined over the past several months because of a strong labor market, a deceleration...
Fed
Filter content
Tag
Region
Research Briefing
We assume the disruption to shipping caused by maritime attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea will be relatively...
Research Briefing
The economy is weakening, but the incoming data are consistent with a slowdown rather than a technical recession.
Research Briefing
Emerging market (EM) GDP growth will disappoint next year but EM central banks will reap the dividends of credible policies...
Research Briefing
Our measure of financial conditions has become less restrictive in the US and started to loosen in the eurozone and...
Research Briefing
The dollar will continue to be supported by a high carry and the relative resilience of the US economy. Even...
Research Briefing
We expect a material slowdown in the US economy in the next couple of quarters to give way to a...
Research Briefing
We expect widespread declines in inflation and interest rates in 2024 across advanced economies. A key differentiator, however, is that...
Research Briefing
In our latest forecast, we removed the mild recession from our baseline and now anticipate a prolonged period of below-trend...
Research Briefing
We see the recent increase in term premia as explainable by the ongoing retreat of price insensitive foreign buyers, structurally...
Research Briefing
While the economy has expanded throughout 2023, uncertainty remains high and we are not ready to remove a recession from...
A peak in policy rates is often a positive catalyst for equities, but there are three key reasons why we...
Research Briefing
We still think that the US economy is headed for a slowdown at the turn of the year. Three factors...
Research Briefing
The data this week have done little to change the picture of an economy that remains resilient and a labor...
Research Briefing
Our supply-chain stress tracker declined again in June and stood halfway below its year-ago level, signaling a massive improvement in...
Research Briefing
We expect downward pressure from multiple factors to push inflation lower by the end of 2023. Weaker demand and reduced...
Research Briefing
Spot crude oil prices continue to be held back by demand woes, despite recent moves to tighten the market by...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress eased in April, which will put downward pressure on goods prices and allow the Fed to pause...
Research Briefing
We receive many questions on the state of the US economy from clients. Here, we answer the top five most...
Research Briefing
The recent banking sector turmoil could trigger a chain reaction of events that plunges the global economy into recession. However,...
