Research Briefing | Aug 4, 2023

Sticking with our US recession call

The data this week have done little to change the picture of an economy that remains resilient and a labor market that is cooling, albeit gradually. That combination leaves the September Fed decision up in the air, though we expect weaker growth and slower inflation over the coming months to prompt Fed officials to keep rates unchanged in September and through the remainder of this year.

What you will learn:

  • Even though the incoming data remain solid, we still think that growth will weaken from here as the impact of higher rates and tighter lending conditions continues to feed through. We are sticking with our call that the economy will fall into a recession late this year, though the risks are skewed toward a later downturn than in our baseline.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL)


US Forecasting Service

Access to short- and long-term analysis, scenarios and forecasts for the US economy.

Find Out More
various country flags


Global Economic Model

Our Global Economic Model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and testing scenarios.

Find Out More


Global Macro Service

Monitor macro events and their potential impact.

Find Out More