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Sally Li

Manufacturing
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Research Briefing | May 16, 2022

Mapping Europe’s regional exposure to supply chain issues

Global supply chain disruptions are impacting regions of Europe that are heavily dependent on the two key industrial sectors of machinery manufacturing and vehicle manufacturing. For Europe, our two-digit industry-by-region dataset allows us to look in detail at which places are likely to have been most affected and when they will see a recovery.

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Research Briefing | May 16, 2022

Mapping Europe’s regional exposure to supply chain issues

Global supply chain disruptions are impacting regions of Europe that are heavily dependent on the two key industrial sectors of machinery manufacturing and vehicle manufacturing. For Europe, our two-digit industry-by-region dataset allows us to look in detail at which places are likely to have been most affected and when they will see a recovery.

Read more

Aerial view of city
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Research Briefing | May 6, 2022

Major cities will see GDP growth rates diverge, 2022-26

Report screenshotIn 2022 there are larger variations in employment growth between cities in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific than the variations between those regions in city GDP growth. That reflects pandemic-related factors, influencing short-term employment trends. But over the 2022-26 the reverse is true, as pre-pandemic differences in factors such as industrial restructuring, demographics, migration flows, and productivity growth resume their former importance.

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Research Briefing | May 6, 2022

Major cities will see GDP growth rates diverge, 2022-26

Report screenshotIn 2022 there are larger variations in employment growth between cities in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific than the variations between those regions in city GDP growth. That reflects pandemic-related factors, influencing short-term employment trends. But over the 2022-26 the reverse is true, as pre-pandemic differences in factors such as industrial restructuring, demographics, migration flows, and productivity growth resume their former importance.

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Research Briefing | Apr 12, 2022

US industrial to continue to outshine other property sectors

Following a stellar 2021, where returns were 41.3%, US industrial real estate total returns are expected to moderate over the near term. Growing geopolitical uncertainty, higher inflation and quantitative tightening have led us to lower our near-term forecast. That said, industrial sector returns are still expected to outpace all other real estate sectors – both in the US and across all REES economies – and other asset classes. Propelled by continued capital value growth, returns will average nearly 12% over the forecast horizon.

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Research Briefing | Apr 12, 2022

US industrial to continue to outshine other property sectors

Following a stellar 2021, where returns were 41.3%, US industrial real estate total returns are expected to moderate over the near term. Growing geopolitical uncertainty, higher inflation and quantitative tightening have led us to lower our near-term forecast. That said, industrial sector returns are still expected to outpace all other real estate sectors – both in the US and across all REES economies – and other asset classes. Propelled by continued capital value growth, returns will average nearly 12% over the forecast horizon.

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Wheat
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Research Briefing | Apr 12, 2022

Asia’s food inflation to peak in Q3, but not at alarming levels

Muted food inflation was one of the reasons why the rise in Asia’s consumer inflation lagged the rest of the world in 2021. With an aggregate weight of 26% in the CPI basket, food plays a key role in influencing Asia’s consumer inflation. So, it’s hardly surprising that the impact of the war in Ukraine on global agriculture markets has stoked inflation worries in the region.

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Research Briefing | Apr 12, 2022

Asia’s food inflation to peak in Q3, but not at alarming levels

Muted food inflation was one of the reasons why the rise in Asia’s consumer inflation lagged the rest of the world in 2021. With an aggregate weight of 26% in the CPI basket, food plays a key role in influencing Asia’s consumer inflation. So, it’s hardly surprising that the impact of the war in Ukraine on global agriculture markets has stoked inflation worries in the region.

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Research Briefing | Apr 11, 2022

London Monitor: The expansion continued in early 2022, but with some concerns

The recent economic indicators have been giving somewhat mixed messages about London’s economy. Taken as a whole they point to continuing growth in early 2022, but with external challenges pressing in.

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Research Briefing | Apr 11, 2022

London Monitor: The expansion continued in early 2022, but with some concerns

The recent economic indicators have been giving somewhat mixed messages about London’s economy. Taken as a whole they point to continuing growth in early 2022, but with external challenges pressing in.

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Green building

Decarbonising Europe’s building stock will require a huge programme of renovations to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050. This will lead to higher costs in the majority of European real estate markets.

China, Shenzhen skyline

he next five years represent a turning point for employment levels in China. Due to ageing demographics the country’s working age population has been in decline since 2016, and by 2026 we project the level of employment will have peaked at approximately 760 million. Beyond 2026, China’s employment levels will begin to decline.

Chicago city skyline

Despite growing uncertainty about geopolitics, inflation, and interest rates, US office total returns are expected to reach 6.3% this year.

China travel

China was a key driver of growth in the decade prior to the pandemic, accounting for one-quarter of the increase in international travel spending from 2010 to 2019 and 15% of the growth in visitors.

The global economic outlook has deteriorated, with downside risks threatening global real estate. In this Research Briefing, we share our baseline forecasts, as well as real estate performance under alternative scenarios.

Europe map

Back to Resource Hub Research Briefing | Mar 15, 2022 Tourism effects of Russia’s war on Ukraine While Ukraine and Russia will suffer significant impacts in terms of inbound travel, there will be immediate and direct impacts across other destinations due to weaker economic conditions. In aggregate, Russia and Ukraine outbound travel accounted for 5.4% … Read more

Asia currency
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Research Briefing | Mar 14, 2022

APAC commodity currencies lead the way amid Russia-Ukraine war

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was not priced in by markets and has led to spiralling commodity prices, higher risk premia, and strong demand for the USD. Asian foreign exchange (FX) markets have felt the combined impact of these developments.

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Research Briefing | Mar 14, 2022

APAC commodity currencies lead the way amid Russia-Ukraine war

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was not priced in by markets and has led to spiralling commodity prices, higher risk premia, and strong demand for the USD. Asian foreign exchange (FX) markets have felt the combined impact of these developments.

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The US Recovery Tracker rose 1.3ppts to 98.4 in the week ended February 18, its highest level in two months as the spread of the Omicron variant slowed and demand for services accelerated.

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Research Briefing | Mar 1, 2022

China’s renminbi (CNY) will benefit from its safe haven status

The renminbi (CNY) has demonstrated its resilience to global market volatility in recent months, holding steady against the US dollar and other currencies. This has happened despite China is experiencing a significant economic slowdown, a narrowing in China-US yield spreads, and most recently, the Russia-Ukraine war.

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Research Briefing | Mar 1, 2022

China’s renminbi (CNY) will benefit from its safe haven status

The renminbi (CNY) has demonstrated its resilience to global market volatility in recent months, holding steady against the US dollar and other currencies. This has happened despite China is experiencing a significant economic slowdown, a narrowing in China-US yield spreads, and most recently, the Russia-Ukraine war.

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Jakarta CBD Panorama, Indonisia
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Research Briefing | Feb 23, 2022

Capital move not likely to threaten Jakarta’s economic importance

The Indonesian government has ambitions to move the country’s capital away from Jakarta to an as-yet unbuilt city over 1,000km away on the island of Borneo. The construction of the new city, to be named ‘Nusantara’, is planned to start in 2022 with government operations and personnel beginning to relocate from 2024. Should the move go ahead, we think it is unlikely to be a significant economic threat to Jakarta.

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Research Briefing | Feb 23, 2022

Capital move not likely to threaten Jakarta’s economic importance

The Indonesian government has ambitions to move the country’s capital away from Jakarta to an as-yet unbuilt city over 1,000km away on the island of Borneo. The construction of the new city, to be named ‘Nusantara’, is planned to start in 2022 with government operations and personnel beginning to relocate from 2024. Should the move go ahead, we think it is unlikely to be a significant economic threat to Jakarta.

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High rise building
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Research Briefing | Feb 21, 2022

Real estate looks solid despite inflation and rate risks

Real estate looks solid despite inflation and rate risks Page 1While cause for worry remains relatively low, the chances of a higher inflation regime have increased. In this report, we analyse the key underlying transmission mechanisms of inflation to commercial real estate performance and their current state. Namely, interest rates, real wages and corporate earnings.

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Research Briefing | Feb 21, 2022

Real estate looks solid despite inflation and rate risks

Real estate looks solid despite inflation and rate risks Page 1While cause for worry remains relatively low, the chances of a higher inflation regime have increased. In this report, we analyse the key underlying transmission mechanisms of inflation to commercial real estate performance and their current state. Namely, interest rates, real wages and corporate earnings.

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People walking along rundle mall in South Australia
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Research Briefing | Feb 21, 2022

Australia’s population outlook boosted by quicker border reopening

Australia's population outlook boosted by quicker border reopening Page1Alongside the return of temporary migrants, the Australian border will be open to all traveller categories, most importantly tourists, from 21 February 2022. The accelerated return of temporary migrants has upgraded the outlook for net overseas migration (NOM). We see quarterly NOM returning to the pre-pandemic rate by mid-2022.

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Research Briefing | Feb 21, 2022

Australia’s population outlook boosted by quicker border reopening

Australia's population outlook boosted by quicker border reopening Page1Alongside the return of temporary migrants, the Australian border will be open to all traveller categories, most importantly tourists, from 21 February 2022. The accelerated return of temporary migrants has upgraded the outlook for net overseas migration (NOM). We see quarterly NOM returning to the pre-pandemic rate by mid-2022.

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Business man stopping dominos from falling

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Magnifying the Middle East and North Africa map

You may be interested in MENA Forecasting Service Monitor the implications of economic and market developments in the MENA region. Find Out More → African and Middle Eastern Cities Forecasts Comprehensive data and forecasts for major cities in Africa and the Middle East. Find Out More → Africa Forecasting Service Comprehensive analysis of immediate and … Read more

Beijing financial district

You may be interested in China Cities and Regional Forecasts Quarterly updated and forecasts for 280 cities and all 31 provinces across mainland China. Find Out More → Asian Cities and Regional Forecasts Key economic, demographic, and income and spending projections to 2050 for more than 400 locations across Asia-Pacific. Find Out More → Asia … Read more

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