OE Logo
Request a trial

Sally Li

Tourists discussing their plans

Targeting markets that provide a greater bang for the marketing buck will be one crucial factor in supporting the tourism recovery and restoring the economic benefits of the sector.

supply chain
Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jun 10, 2022

Some positive news for US supply chain

In response to client demand, we introduce our new US supply chain indicator which provides perspective on supply chain conditions since 2011. This index incorporates more than 30 real and survey datapoints covering logistics, the labor market, inflation, inventories, and activity conditions from government and private-sector data sources, constructed using a principal components approach. Our new index points to slightly less stress last month. However, stress overall remained extremely high compared to the past 11 years.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jun 10, 2022

Some positive news for US supply chain

In response to client demand, we introduce our new US supply chain indicator which provides perspective on supply chain conditions since 2011. This index incorporates more than 30 real and survey datapoints covering logistics, the labor market, inflation, inventories, and activity conditions from government and private-sector data sources, constructed using a principal components approach. Our new index points to slightly less stress last month. However, stress overall remained extremely high compared to the past 11 years.

Read more

Renminbi
Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jun 10, 2022

China’s renminbi will likely remain weak for the rest of 2022

After strengthening for more than one-and-a-half years and having demonstrated resilience to global market volatility, China’s renminbi (CNY) weakened sharply in April and May. We forecast the renminbi to weaken close to CNY7/US$ in H2 (from CNY6.65-6.79 in May) before a rebound in 2023, assuming China’s economy will be on track to recover and moves beyond its zero-Covid policy next year.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jun 10, 2022

China’s renminbi will likely remain weak for the rest of 2022

After strengthening for more than one-and-a-half years and having demonstrated resilience to global market volatility, China’s renminbi (CNY) weakened sharply in April and May. We forecast the renminbi to weaken close to CNY7/US$ in H2 (from CNY6.65-6.79 in May) before a rebound in 2023, assuming China’s economy will be on track to recover and moves beyond its zero-Covid policy next year.

Read more

Industrial property
Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | May 27, 2022

US: High debt costs suggest an industrial correction

The US five-year swap rate is currently 3.1%, some 210 basis points higher than a year ago, with commercial real estate loan margins also up 10bps-15bps by our estimates. This has pushed up the all-in interest rate by 225 basis points in the US. With the cost of debt rising, we ask ourselves what this means for cap rates? Our analysis of global gateway industrial and office markets suggests that a correction is mostly needed for US industrial and European office markets.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | May 27, 2022

US: High debt costs suggest an industrial correction

The US five-year swap rate is currently 3.1%, some 210 basis points higher than a year ago, with commercial real estate loan margins also up 10bps-15bps by our estimates. This has pushed up the all-in interest rate by 225 basis points in the US. With the cost of debt rising, we ask ourselves what this means for cap rates? Our analysis of global gateway industrial and office markets suggests that a correction is mostly needed for US industrial and European office markets.

Read more

Office building in London
Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | May 26, 2022

High debt costs suggest European office price correction

Unlike US office markets, prime assets in key European cities did not experience a correction during the pandemic. Prime yield remained flat for the most part, with some compression even evident in selected locations during 2021. As a result, prime yields in European office markets now look in need of adjustment by 10bps-75bps relative to the all-in interest rate, assuming a low-risk interest coverage ratio and a reasonable LTV are to be maintained.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | May 26, 2022

High debt costs suggest European office price correction

Unlike US office markets, prime assets in key European cities did not experience a correction during the pandemic. Prime yield remained flat for the most part, with some compression even evident in selected locations during 2021. As a result, prime yields in European office markets now look in need of adjustment by 10bps-75bps relative to the all-in interest rate, assuming a low-risk interest coverage ratio and a reasonable LTV are to be maintained.

Read more

Manufacturing
Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | May 16, 2022

Mapping Europe’s regional exposure to supply chain issues

Global supply chain disruptions are impacting regions of Europe that are heavily dependent on the two key industrial sectors of machinery manufacturing and vehicle manufacturing. For Europe, our two-digit industry-by-region dataset allows us to look in detail at which places are likely to have been most affected and when they will see a recovery.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | May 16, 2022

Mapping Europe’s regional exposure to supply chain issues

Global supply chain disruptions are impacting regions of Europe that are heavily dependent on the two key industrial sectors of machinery manufacturing and vehicle manufacturing. For Europe, our two-digit industry-by-region dataset allows us to look in detail at which places are likely to have been most affected and when they will see a recovery.

Read more

Aerial view of city
Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | May 6, 2022

Major cities will see GDP growth rates diverge, 2022-26

Report screenshotIn 2022 there are larger variations in employment growth between cities in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific than the variations between those regions in city GDP growth. That reflects pandemic-related factors, influencing short-term employment trends. But over the 2022-26 the reverse is true, as pre-pandemic differences in factors such as industrial restructuring, demographics, migration flows, and productivity growth resume their former importance.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | May 6, 2022

Major cities will see GDP growth rates diverge, 2022-26

Report screenshotIn 2022 there are larger variations in employment growth between cities in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific than the variations between those regions in city GDP growth. That reflects pandemic-related factors, influencing short-term employment trends. But over the 2022-26 the reverse is true, as pre-pandemic differences in factors such as industrial restructuring, demographics, migration flows, and productivity growth resume their former importance.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 12, 2022

US industrial to continue to outshine other property sectors

Following a stellar 2021, where returns were 41.3%, US industrial real estate total returns are expected to moderate over the near term. Growing geopolitical uncertainty, higher inflation and quantitative tightening have led us to lower our near-term forecast. That said, industrial sector returns are still expected to outpace all other real estate sectors – both in the US and across all REES economies – and other asset classes. Propelled by continued capital value growth, returns will average nearly 12% over the forecast horizon.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 12, 2022

US industrial to continue to outshine other property sectors

Following a stellar 2021, where returns were 41.3%, US industrial real estate total returns are expected to moderate over the near term. Growing geopolitical uncertainty, higher inflation and quantitative tightening have led us to lower our near-term forecast. That said, industrial sector returns are still expected to outpace all other real estate sectors – both in the US and across all REES economies – and other asset classes. Propelled by continued capital value growth, returns will average nearly 12% over the forecast horizon.

Read more

Wheat
Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 12, 2022

Asia’s food inflation to peak in Q3, but not at alarming levels

Muted food inflation was one of the reasons why the rise in Asia’s consumer inflation lagged the rest of the world in 2021. With an aggregate weight of 26% in the CPI basket, food plays a key role in influencing Asia’s consumer inflation. So, it’s hardly surprising that the impact of the war in Ukraine on global agriculture markets has stoked inflation worries in the region.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 12, 2022

Asia’s food inflation to peak in Q3, but not at alarming levels

Muted food inflation was one of the reasons why the rise in Asia’s consumer inflation lagged the rest of the world in 2021. With an aggregate weight of 26% in the CPI basket, food plays a key role in influencing Asia’s consumer inflation. So, it’s hardly surprising that the impact of the war in Ukraine on global agriculture markets has stoked inflation worries in the region.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 11, 2022

London Monitor: The expansion continued in early 2022, but with some concerns

The recent economic indicators have been giving somewhat mixed messages about London’s economy. Taken as a whole they point to continuing growth in early 2022, but with external challenges pressing in.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Apr 11, 2022

London Monitor: The expansion continued in early 2022, but with some concerns

The recent economic indicators have been giving somewhat mixed messages about London’s economy. Taken as a whole they point to continuing growth in early 2022, but with external challenges pressing in.

Read more

Green building

Decarbonising Europe’s building stock will require a huge programme of renovations to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050. This will lead to higher costs in the majority of European real estate markets.

China, Shenzhen skyline

he next five years represent a turning point for employment levels in China. Due to ageing demographics the country’s working age population has been in decline since 2016, and by 2026 we project the level of employment will have peaked at approximately 760 million. Beyond 2026, China’s employment levels will begin to decline.

Chicago city skyline

Despite growing uncertainty about geopolitics, inflation, and interest rates, US office total returns are expected to reach 6.3% this year.

China travel

China was a key driver of growth in the decade prior to the pandemic, accounting for one-quarter of the increase in international travel spending from 2010 to 2019 and 15% of the growth in visitors.

The global economic outlook has deteriorated, with downside risks threatening global real estate. In this Research Briefing, we share our baseline forecasts, as well as real estate performance under alternative scenarios.

Europe map

Back to Resource Hub Research Briefing | Mar 15, 2022 Tourism effects of Russia’s war on Ukraine While Ukraine and Russia will suffer significant impacts in terms of inbound travel, there will be immediate and direct impacts across other destinations due to weaker economic conditions. In aggregate, Russia and Ukraine outbound travel accounted for 5.4% … Read more

Asia currency
Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Mar 14, 2022

APAC commodity currencies lead the way amid Russia-Ukraine war

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was not priced in by markets and has led to spiralling commodity prices, higher risk premia, and strong demand for the USD. Asian foreign exchange (FX) markets have felt the combined impact of these developments.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Mar 14, 2022

APAC commodity currencies lead the way amid Russia-Ukraine war

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was not priced in by markets and has led to spiralling commodity prices, higher risk premia, and strong demand for the USD. Asian foreign exchange (FX) markets have felt the combined impact of these developments.

Read more

The US Recovery Tracker rose 1.3ppts to 98.4 in the week ended February 18, its highest level in two months as the spread of the Omicron variant slowed and demand for services accelerated.

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Mar 1, 2022

China’s renminbi (CNY) will benefit from its safe haven status

The renminbi (CNY) has demonstrated its resilience to global market volatility in recent months, holding steady against the US dollar and other currencies. This has happened despite China is experiencing a significant economic slowdown, a narrowing in China-US yield spreads, and most recently, the Russia-Ukraine war.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Mar 1, 2022

China’s renminbi (CNY) will benefit from its safe haven status

The renminbi (CNY) has demonstrated its resilience to global market volatility in recent months, holding steady against the US dollar and other currencies. This has happened despite China is experiencing a significant economic slowdown, a narrowing in China-US yield spreads, and most recently, the Russia-Ukraine war.

Read more

Jakarta CBD Panorama, Indonisia
Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Feb 23, 2022

Capital move not likely to threaten Jakarta’s economic importance

The Indonesian government has ambitions to move the country’s capital away from Jakarta to an as-yet unbuilt city over 1,000km away on the island of Borneo. The construction of the new city, to be named ‘Nusantara’, is planned to start in 2022 with government operations and personnel beginning to relocate from 2024. Should the move go ahead, we think it is unlikely to be a significant economic threat to Jakarta.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Feb 23, 2022

Capital move not likely to threaten Jakarta’s economic importance

The Indonesian government has ambitions to move the country’s capital away from Jakarta to an as-yet unbuilt city over 1,000km away on the island of Borneo. The construction of the new city, to be named ‘Nusantara’, is planned to start in 2022 with government operations and personnel beginning to relocate from 2024. Should the move go ahead, we think it is unlikely to be a significant economic threat to Jakarta.

Read more

Also of Interest