Major cities will see GDP growth rates diverge, 2022-26
In 2022 there are larger variations in employment growth between cities in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific than the variations between those regions in city GDP growth. That reflects pandemic-related factors, influencing short-term employment trends. But over the 2022-26 the reverse is true, as pre-pandemic differences in factors such as industrial restructuring, demographics, migration flows, and productivity growth resume their former importance.
What you will learn:
- An example of industrial restructuring is the shift of manufacturing within Asia Pacific, towards cities in southeast Asia and south Asia. The continuing rise of tech cities in the US is another example.
- Whether cities can create and then fill new jobs depends in part on demographics. Europe’s working age population has been in decline for over a decade. But for Europe’s cities, that is not true, thanks to migration.
- Productivity also matters a lot. Warsaw, Europe’s fastest growing major city over the 2022-26 period, benefits greatly from productivity growth.
Cities face global challenges, but many outperform
2022 is proving to be a very disappointing year for global GDP growth, with risks that the outlook could worsen. But many cities are out-performing their national economies. Some are seeing strong rebounds in tourism and hospitality; a few are helped, not hurt, by higher global commodity prices, whereas others face manufacturing challenges. For Chinese cities the pandemic is still a big problem, but fortunately inflation is not the issue that it is elsewhere.Find Out More
Global urbanisation continues, led by rapid growth in African cities
In the next two decades, the world’s 900 major cities will experience a combined population increase of nearly 600 million people. While the largest cities will continue to be in Asia, African cities are expected to grow the fastest. In contrast, many cities in Europe and East Asia will experience population declines over this period.Find Out More