Major cities will see GDP growth rates diverge, 2022-26
In 2022 there are larger variations in employment growth between cities in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific than the variations between those regions in city GDP growth. That reflects pandemic-related factors, influencing short-term employment trends. But over the 2022-26 the reverse is true, as pre-pandemic differences in factors such as industrial restructuring, demographics, migration flows, and productivity growth resume their former importance.
What you will learn:
- An example of industrial restructuring is the shift of manufacturing within Asia Pacific, towards cities in southeast Asia and south Asia. The continuing rise of tech cities in the US is another example.
- Whether cities can create and then fill new jobs depends in part on demographics. Europe’s working age population has been in decline for over a decade. But for Europe’s cities, that is not true, thanks to migration.
- Productivity also matters a lot. Warsaw, Europe’s fastest growing major city over the 2022-26 period, benefits greatly from productivity growth.
Related Posts
Post
Several European cities may manage to defy recession in 2023
After a mixed 2022, with post-pandemic recovery driving strong growth in the first half of the year, a recession over this winter means that we expect average 2023 GDP growth for European cities to be close to zero.
Find Out More
Post
Short-term outlook for cities deteriorates
Many cities in the world's advanced economies will enter recession in 2023, with soaring inflation and tightening monetary and fiscal policy driving down demand. In contrast, the majority of cities in emerging economies will still enjoy robust economic growth.
Find Out More