Russia-Ukraine war adds to the risks facing global real estate

The global economic outlook has deteriorated, with downside risks threatening global real estate. In this Research Briefing, we share our baseline forecasts, as well as real estate performance under alternative scenarios.

We examine real estate performance under below scenarios:

• We’ve lowered our baseline forecast and now expect global all-property returns to average 7.4% pa over 2022-2023.
• Alternative baseline: a scenario in which the Russia-Ukraine war is protracted and results in a moderate impact to the global economy.
• Central bank overaction scenario: monetary policymakers take firm action and raise rates more rapidly than expected.
• Persistent inflation scenario: inflationary pressures prove more stubborn than anticipated in our baseline forecast
• Long-Covid scenario: the rapid spread of a new variant results in more cautious consumer behaviour and the return of Covid-related restrictions in select countries.
• End-of-pandemic scenario: fading coronavirus concerns lead to a sharp, consumer-led recovery