Mapping Europe’s regional exposure to supply chain issues
Global supply chain disruptions are impacting regions of Europe that are heavily dependent on the two key industrial sectors of machinery manufacturing and vehicle manufacturing. For Europe, our two-digit industry-by-region dataset allows us to look in detail at which places are likely to have been most affected and when they will see a recovery.
What you will learn:
- Machinery manufacturing’s recovery to pre-pandemic levels of activity is ahead of the vehicles manufacturing sector.
- As inventories get back to more normal levels this year, we expect many manufacturing bottleneck pressures to ease. In the machinery manufacturing sectors’ top three locations, Stuttgart is estimated to have recovered back to 2019 levels of GVA in 2021, while Emilia-Romagna is expected to recover this year, and Lombardia next year.
- The interconnected nature of the vehicle industry within Europe means that instances such as the recent disruption to wiring harness manufacture in Ukraine this year can have a huge impact. While some companies will be more successful than others in sourcing the part from elsewhere, we still expect it to delay Stuttgart’s and Munich’s recovery in vehicle manufacturing to 2023.
Eurozone recession, not there for now, but risks are rising
Growth risks for the eurozone economy are leaning to the downside, according to our analysis. Our business cycle indicator and recession probability model show that the economy is nearing a peak, which, based on previous historical episodes, suggests that risks of a recession in the near future are rising.Find Out More
Easing supply bottlenecks to bolster Eurozone industrial rebound
We see signs that the worst is over and we expect eurozone industrial production to grow a strong 4% in 2022.Find Out More