Oxford Economics is proud to launch the Global Cities Index, a ground-breaking initiative that offers evaluation of the world’s 1,000 largest urban economies.
Sally Li
A recent assessment by the World Bank Group identified the Oxford Economics Model as a superior tool for forecasting commodity prices.
Our new proprietary cycle phase analysis suggests that industrial production in many developed economies has bottomed out and is now poised to enter a period of growth.
Overall, we are slightly more bullish on commodity prices across the forecast horizon as we expect higher metal prices than the consensus.
The Biden administration’s additional tariffs on China are essentially a rounding error for inflation and GDP, carrying no implications for monetary policy. However, Biden’s decision to implement additional tariffs on China is another indication that US industry policy is shifting toward the stick approach, such as more use of tariffs.
We are cautiously optimistic on the Turkish lira and have recently moved the currency to an overweight in our Emerging Market portfolio. Our new call is supported by the central bank’s more orthodox stance and the authorities’ preference for real appreciation of the lira.
Office markets across China’s major cities continue to deteriorate after consecutive years of rising vacancy rates and falling rents. Vacancy rates are now 20%-40% across the major cities – the highest among all major global markets.
At Oxford Economics we firmly agree with Bernanke’s forecast process recommendations to the BoE. The review also sparked us to consider our forecasting approach and how we would fare in a similar exercise.
We expect Chinese export price deflation to provide a helpful tailwind in the struggle to bring EM inflation back to target.
Oxford Economics expands Commodity Price Forecasts service to include battery metals, agricultural commodities and plastics.
Download our latest report on the price forecasts for oil, natural gas, iron, steel, base metals, precious metals, battery metals and food.
The military escalation between Iran and Israel has ratcheted up fears of an expanded Middle East conflict. The threat of counter strikes by Israel is clearly heightened, but we think both sides will ultimately seek to avoid a costly all-out war.
We firmly agree with all of Bernake review’s forecasting process recommendations, though it appears from the BoE’s initial response that change will be slow to happen.
We modeled two scenarios in which former President Donald Trump returns to the White House and Republicans gain full control of Congress after the 2024 election.
The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Maryland is another reminder of the US vulnerability to supply-chain shocks.
Updated on a weekly basis, Oxford Economics’ Proprietary Data Service is your gateway to a wealth of high-frequency indicators, sophisticated models and vintage macro and financial forecasts, giving you an edge over conventional macroeconomic indicators.
Oxford Economics is excited to enrich its suite of asset management solutions with the introduction of the Proprietary Data Service.
Industrial production in China is forecast to post growth of 5% in 2024, for the second year in a row. Its performance will outstrip the United States and an anaemic expansion in Europe, and raises the prospect of a renewed tensions between East and West.
The Magnificent Seven are propelling US equity indices to unprecedented concentrations. The question is: Will the megacap dominance persist?
Commodity markets have barely reacted to Red Sea attacks, and we think the impact on prices will be minimal. As a result, we have not changed our price forecasts beyond a very short-term upward revision to crude oil and gold prices.
