Research Briefing | Jul 4, 2023

US office sector slows job growth in most metros

All major US metros are poised to see positive medium-term job growth, but a few are already feeling the effects of recessionary forces. Some have shown job declines in office-based sectors in the first half of 2023, and most will do so in the second half before recovering in 2024 to 2027.

What you will learn:

  • The office sector in particular—an aggregate of information, finance, real estate, and professional and other business services—will see broader declines than other sectors in the second half of 2023 before growing steadily in the latter half of 2024 through 2027.
  • The information sector has and will continue to bear the brunt of job losses in 2023. Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Washington, Boston, and Miami have incurred some of the heaviest losses thus far in 2023.
  • The largest metros have shown little change in finance jobs to date despite the collapse of SVB, First Republic, and Signature banks. However, we forecast that most metros will do so through Q1 2024 before recovering in late 2024 through 2027.
  • Metros leading five-year growth include Austin, Orlando, Las Vegas, Dallas, and Charlotte. Those trailing include many in the Midwest and some in the Northeast.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Resources

Post

The 10 cities with world-leading environments in 2024

At the top of the Quality of Life category are cities with lower inequality and residents that live long lives. Most of these cities also provide residents with access to a wide range of recreation and cultural amenities. They tend to be smaller than the leading cities in the Economics or Human Capital categories, and every city in the top 10 is located in Western Europe, bar one in Australia.

Find Out More

Post

Chartbook: The largest US warehousing and logistics metro markets will lead the sector’s revival over the medium term

Industrial property has delivered higher returns than all other property types over the last few years. We forecast that this trend will continue despite the contraction in the warehousing sector.

Find Out More

Post

Quality of life is highest in these 10 cities in 2024

At the top of the Quality of Life category are cities with lower inequality and residents that live long lives. Most of these cities also provide residents with access to a wide range of recreation and cultural amenities. They tend to be smaller than the leading cities in the Economics or Human Capital categories, and every city in the top 10 is located in Western Europe, bar one in Australia.

Find Out More