Sally Li 
The Biden administration’s additional tariffs on China are essentially a rounding error for inflation and GDP, carrying no implications for monetary policy. However, Biden’s decision to implement additional tariffs on China is another indication that US industry policy is shifting toward the stick approach, such as more use of tariffs.
We are cautiously optimistic on the Turkish lira and have recently moved the currency to an overweight in our Emerging Market portfolio. Our new call is supported by the central bank’s more orthodox stance and the authorities’ preference for real appreciation of the lira.
Office markets across China’s major cities continue to deteriorate after consecutive years of rising vacancy rates and falling rents. Vacancy rates are now 20%-40% across the major cities – the highest among all major global markets.
At Oxford Economics we firmly agree with Bernanke’s forecast process recommendations to the BoE. The review also sparked us to consider our forecasting approach and how we would fare in a similar exercise.
We expect Chinese export price deflation to provide a helpful tailwind in the struggle to bring EM inflation back to target.
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The military escalation between Iran and Israel has ratcheted up fears of an expanded Middle East conflict. The threat of counter strikes by Israel is clearly heightened, but we think both sides will ultimately seek to avoid a costly all-out war.
We firmly agree with all of Bernake review’s forecasting process recommendations, though it appears from the BoE’s initial response that change will be slow to happen.
We modeled two scenarios in which former President Donald Trump returns to the White House and Republicans gain full control of Congress after the 2024 election.
The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Maryland is another reminder of the US vulnerability to supply-chain shocks.
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Industrial production in China is forecast to post growth of 5% in 2024, for the second year in a row. Its performance will outstrip the United States and an anaemic expansion in Europe, and raises the prospect of a renewed tensions between East and West.
The Magnificent Seven are propelling US equity indices to unprecedented concentrations. The question is: Will the megacap dominance persist?
Commodity markets have barely reacted to Red Sea attacks, and we think the impact on prices will be minimal. As a result, we have not changed our price forecasts beyond a very short-term upward revision to crude oil and gold prices.
Immigration has become the key driver of population growth, and that trend will only accelerate. Based on our forecast, immigration will account for close to 100% of population growth by 2050.
We have downgraded our outlook and now forecast global construction activity to fall 0.3% in 2024 to US$9.6tn and rebound 2.4% in 2025 to $9.8tn. This downgrade is largely attributed to historical data revisions made by China’s National Bureau of Statistics which saw a higher level of activity in 2023
Our risk sentiment indicator is now in extreme optimism territory and suggests that equities may be at risk of a near-term reversal.
The United States and Europe are both set to fall into a shallow industrial recession this year, thanks to a cocktail of higher interest rates and energy prices and weak global demand.
