Private credit risks are rising, but limited spillovers and lower leverage reduce the threat to broader financial stability.
Anusha Suthenthiran
We’ve lowered our world GDP growth forecast by 0.4ppts since the start of March to 2.4% because we expect a more prolonged disruption to shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.
Rising oil and gas prices expose economies to shocks. Could expanding renewable energy be the key to stability?
We are deeply saddened to share that John Walker, founder of Oxford Economics and a pioneer in international economic forecasting, passed away unexpectedly over the weekend.
Commodity markets move fast, but traditional tracking misses the signals. Monthly forecasts uncover momentum and turning points. Discover the real story with Oxford Economics.
Disruption to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz poses a bigger threat to Asia than higher oil prices, risking tighter power supply and weaker industrial momentum. Could this energy shock stall the region’s growth engine?
Energy prices are pushing inflation higher in the UK and Eurozone, undermining the idea that central banks can simply look through supply shocks. If price pressures persist, can policymakers really afford to stay on hold?
This conflict is larger and more intense than the 2025 12-Day War, with major implications for oil markets, global assets, and investor positioning — but will the shock last longer than two months?
Strong services growth and industrial specialisation are strengthening Birmingham’s economy, yet structural challenges remain—will the city be able to sustain this momentum?
With net migration set to fall to its lowest level since 1997, the UK faces weaker growth and higher borrowing. Can productivity gains and AI really make up the shortfall?
China’s rapid rise across both high-tech and labour-intensive exports is reshaping global trade and squeezing competitors — but which countries and industries are most at risk?
The US is loosening restrictions on advanced chip exports to China, hoping to slow its manufacturing progress, but China’s drive for self-sufficiency is accelerating — will this policy shift actually work?
News-based measures show a sharp rise in uncertainty in early 2026, driven by geopolitics and tariffs. But survey evidence and investment data paint a steadier picture. Are businesses seeing through the noise?
With US tariff threats escalating over Greenland and Europe weighing retaliation, could this standoff trigger a broader trade war and slow global growth?
AI is increasingly blamed for job losses, yet the data tells a more complex story. Are workers truly being replaced or is something else driving labour market shifts?
Gilt yields are expected to ease over the coming years, but higher term premia, fiscal pressures, and shifting investor demand could slow the pace of decline. With markets underestimating these forces, are investors prepared for a longer wait for lower yields?
Brent crude is expected to fall below consensus as supply outpaces demand, leaving the market vulnerable to a prolonged surplus. Could downside risks outweigh geopolitical support?
AI adoption and cloud demand are driving unprecedented data centre expansion. What risks and bottlenecks could slow the growth?
Greater Manchester has led the UK economy since 2008, driven by knowledge jobs, transport upgrades, and housing growth—but can prosperity reach its outer districts?
From Seoul to Delhi and Shanghai, Asia’s urban centres are rapidly overtaking global rivals as living standards soar. What will this mean for the balance of global economic power?
