Anusha Suthenthiran 
Our supply-chain stress index eased in August as early shipping demand faded. However, a long government shutdown could disrupt cargo processing and add pressure to key sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Will these factors derail the recent easing in supply-chain stress?
The US is leading the world in AI-driven investment, fuelling growth far ahead of other advanced economies. But with tariffs looming and adoption risks rising, could the tech-fuelled surge lose momentum in 2026 — or is there more upside to come?
Geopolitical tensions are escalating as US-China trade policy shifts from tariffs to sanctions. Our research highlights global supply-chain risks, with Asia most exposed and Taiwan a critical vulnerability. How resilient are global supply chains to this shock?
US tariffs and global trade tensions will slow growth across Latin America in 2026. Which countries will remain resilient despite these pressures?
We expect the US economy to slow in 2026 but sidestep recession, with AI investment providing key support. How will tariffs, inflation, and uneven household impacts shape the outlook?
The US has seen short-term gains from higher tariffs, with markets steady and growth holding up. But investment weakness, rising risks of inflation, and potential trade retaliation point to a tougher outlook ahead for both the US and global economies.
Oxford Economics’ Global Economic Model assesses the NGFS ‘Sudden Wake-Up Call’ scenario. Results show inflation spiking within a year, global GDP 2.3% below baseline by 2030, and fossil fuel–intensive sectors facing steep losses, while green investment rises as resources shift toward electrification and clean infrastructure.
The global economy faces its weakest expansion since 2009 (ex-2020) as US tariffs and fiscal policy shifts weigh on investment and incomes. Supply shocks and protectionism add to uncertainty — could this be the start of a more fragile era for growth?
The fate of global oil prices hangs on Russia. Sanctions, rerouted exports, and a potential ceasefire could drive Brent and Urals in unexpected directions. What will happen next?
US tariff rates are climbing to levels not seen since the 1930s, with world trade expected to decline and inflation set to rise. What could this mean for global markets and economic growth?
The latest US tariffs are reshaping global trade patterns, hitting some cities harder than others. From Germany’s auto hubs to China’s electronics exporters, which regions will weather the storm and which will struggle?
Demographic shifts are reshaping the global economy, with ageing populations and declining fertility slowing labour supply and growth. Some regions face fiscal pressures, while others, like sub-Saharan Africa, could drive future expansion. But as populations diverge, what does the uncertain demographic future mean for global economic stability?
Tariffs are rising and USMCA protections are slipping away, leaving machinery and US automotive sectors exposed. Here’s why these industries could take the hardest hit.
Rising US tariffs, a 50% copper duty, crackdowns on Asian transshipment, and renewed Red Sea conflict are piling pressure on supply chains. Could these developments trigger the next wave of inflation?
The Bank of England’s new BCST stress test introduces a recalibrated approach to measuring financial resilience in reflecting IFRS 9 impacts and a softer, more realistic stress pathway. What does this mean for lenders and the wider economy? Discover how Oxford Economics extends the BoE’s guidance into a global scenario to help businesses stay prepared for the next downturn.
The net immigration into the US has slowed more abruptly than anticipated in the early days of Trump’s second presidency. Could this be the start of a new chapter in US immigration?
The EU plans a narrower, targeted response to US tariffs on goods, but stronger measures may follow amid rising trade tensions. Could the Anti-Coercion Instrument come into play, escalating the trade war, and what would that mean for translantic trade?
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act could boost GDP over the next two years, with new tariffs helping to steady deficits but can it withstand the drag from trade and immigration policy?
We believe the recent sell-off in the dollar and US assets stems from cyclical pressures linked to tariffs and market positioning, rather than doubts over its role as the global reserve currency.
A recent court ruling challenges key tariffs from the Trump administration, sparking uncertainty in US trade policy. As legal battles unfold, businesses and policymakers face an unpredictable road ahead. What does this mean for the economy and global trade?
