The US immigration surge comes to an end
US border crossings have dropped sharply, reflecting changing immigration patterns and stricter enforcement.
The post-pandemic immigration surge ended more abruptly than anticipated in the early days of Trump’s second presidency.
President Donald Trump’s policies have led to a significant immigration slowdown. As of May, we estimate net immigration is running below 600,000 annualized, down from 1.7mn in Q4 2024. The sharp slowdown in net immigration is entirely attributable to net unauthorized immigration.
However, we see no signs of a broad deceleration in net authorized immigration, which is likely holding steady at a roughly 900,000 annualized pace. We don’t see signs of inflows of lawful permanent residents, international students, or temporary workers relenting under the weight of policy uncertainty.
A lower level of immigration will tighten labor markets over time. However, outsize immigrant cohorts from recent years will add enough to labor supply in 2025 to overcome the drag from the below-average pace of immigration we see in the data.
Download the report to uncover our answers to these key questions surrounding the end of the US immigration surge:
- What’s driving the sudden drop in border crossings?
- How will tighter immigration flows affect the US labour market?
- What are the broader economic implications of this policy shift?
- How will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act influence the immigration outlook?
