A lack of credibility is undermining climate targets
An in-depth analysis on why many G20 nations are falling short on their climate commitments and how stronger, more credible policies are key to a successful low-carbon transition.
Since late 2019, European and global climate policy has gained significant momentum—but that momentum is waning. Several countries are struggling to agree upward revisions to their existing nationally determined contributions (NDCs), as required under the Paris Agreement, or are openly questioning them.
We assess the credibility of G20 countries’ targets to help gauge climate policy stringency or transition risk faced in those countries. We look at three key determinants or ‘pillars’ of credibility:
- The ‘implementation gap’ – The difference between the projected 2030 emissions level under current policies and nationally determined targets.
- The ‘trend gap’ – The historical emissions trend versus the target-consistent trend).
- a country’s ‘policy credibility’ – The likelihood that announced policies will be implemented.
G20 countries representing 65% of global greenhouse gas emissions have targets with low credibility while the remaining G20 countries, representing 10% of global GHG emissions have targets with moderate or high credibility. This overall low credibility increases the likelihood of a delayed transition.
