The energy transition reshapes industry, unevenly

A Net Zero transition would reshape the industrial landscape. Growth is concentrated in sectors tied to electrification and critical minerals, while fossil fuel-linked industries, such as refining, face sustained decline.

Over the past year, we have made several enhancements to the sectoral responses in our Global Industry Climate Service in sectors that are central to the green transition. This note builds on these improvements, taking a closer look at how key sectors evolve under our Net Zero scenario and which regions emerge as winners and losers.

What you will learn:

• Theme 1: Critical mineral exporters stand to gain from the green transition. Metals mining is widely regarded as a key beneficiary of the energy transition, but the gains are far from uniform across countries. Chile would be a relative winner under Net Zero. Countries where mining is largely fossil fuel-related stand to lose out.
• Theme 2: China’s hegemony in battery production remains intact. China’s leading position in battery manufacturing means it is poised to capture a disproportionate share of the value generated by rising demand for EVs and grid-scale battery storage. North America and Europe lag amid structural and policy constraints.
• Theme 3: Refining declines earlier and more sharply in developed economies. Higher carbon prices and faster electrification front-load the decline, while less stringent fuel demand conditions sustain refining activity for longer elsewhere.