RESEARCH BRIEFING
02 Mar 2026
The 2026 Iran war, an initial take and implications
Market and economic implications of the 2026 Iran conflict
Unlike the 2025 12-Day War, this conflict is larger, more intense, and likely to last one to three weeks, at most two months.
What you will learn in this report:
- The U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran on February 28. The war fears are being priced in quickly as the week starts: oil prices spiked materially from February 27 through the March 1 market open.
- Iran cannot win, but disrupting Gulf oil flows could inflict material economic damage and market volatility.
- Oil, gas, out-of-region energy stocks, gold, and aerospace & defense will likely spike. Sell any extreme moves; these will fade as the conflict will not last beyond two months.
- If GCC, East Asian, or European assets fall sharply on war fears, buy the dip.
Authored by:
Dan Alamariu, Chief Geopolitical Strategist of Alpine Macro
Alpine Macro, a member of the Oxford Economics Group, was founded in October 2017 as an independent global investment research firm based in Montreal, Canada. The company focuses on top-down analysis of major secular and cyclical trends in the global economy and financial markets, providing forecasts on major moves in asset prices and recommendations on asset allocation and investment strategy.
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