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RESEARCH BRIEFING
08 May 2026

War uncertainty keeps US markets on edge ahead of CPI, retail sales, and refunding

Market stability is affected by ongoing geopolitical tensions and fluctuating oil prices. Key economic indicators are on the horizon, influencing future trends.

War uncertainty continues to impact market stability, with key economic indicators on the horizon. As oil prices fluctuate and geopolitical tensions persist, Treasury yields have shown slight steadiness this week.

The market experienced a mixed response, with two- and three-year yields rising by 1 basis point, while longer-term bond yields decreased by 1 to 2 basis points. The easing of oil prices contributed to a 2.3% gain in the S&P 500 and a 4.2% rally in the Nasdaq, although the DJIA lagged with only a 0.2% increase. Swap spreads widened, while mortgage-backed securities (MBS) spreads tightened, reflecting a broader trend in corporate spreads remaining stable.

Looking ahead, significant data releases will include inflation measures and consumer spending indicators. The Treasury will also conduct its quarterly refunding auctions, which could further influence market dynamics.

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