Evidence of an AI-driven shakeup of job markets is patchy

Anecdotal evidence suggests jobs are already being lost in sectors vulnerable to AI automation. Overall, though, firms don’t appear to be replacing workers with AI on a significant scale and we doubt that unemployment rates will be pushed up heavily by AI over the next few years.

• While a rising number of firms are pinning job losses on AI, other more traditional drivers of job layoffs are far more commonly cited. 
• Some evidence is being cited to suggest that rising graduate unemployment rates in the US and elsewhere may be a result of firms using AI for tasks previously done by university graduates.
• Economies with the softest labour markets have recorded the largest rises in graduate unemployment, while increasing numbers of newly qualified graduates may have contributed to the rise too, particularly in the Eurozone.
• If AI were already replacing labour at scale, productivity growth should be accelerating. Generally, it isn’t, though that could change quickly if AI continues to develop rapidly and there’s a fast take up by a wide range of firms.

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