Uncertainty outlook is more benign than news suggests

Headline risk is surging, but business sentiment and investment data tell a calmer, more nuanced story.

Uncertainty has jumped in the first few weeks of 2026 according to news-based measures, while other indicators point to much lower economics uncertainty. The preliminary results of our Q1 Global Risk Survey show that businesses don’t perceive a marked increase in uncertainty around the prospects fro economic growth, despite geopolitics dominating the front pages.

Following the tariff announcements on ‘liberation day’, news-based uncertainty indices helped predict the detrimental impact on non-AI-related investment decisions.
Although surveys indicate investment intentions remain subdued – perhaps influenced by the volatile news-flow – investment orders have grown steadily.
Overall, the threat to the global economy from geopolitical instability appears overstated.
Other uncertainties, such as the durability of the AI-related tech boom and the path for fiscal policy, appear more consequential in the near term.
In this environment, our recent scenarios can be a vital tool for business leaders to navigate uncertainty and react flexibly to changing conditions.