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Research Briefing | Oct 15, 2021

US | It ain’t stagflation, but it sure is “M.E.S.S.I.”

It ain’t stagflation, but it sure is “M.E.S.S.I.” - iPad

It’s not runaway inflation, and it’s certainly not stagflation. In fact, the US economy is going through a bout of “M.E.S.S.I.” inflation dynamics – Moderating Expansion with Sticky Supply-driven Inflation – a rare phenomenon where strong, but cooling demand is met by constrained, but accelerating supply, leading to transitory, yet sticky inflation.

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Research Briefing | Oct 15, 2021

US | It ain’t stagflation, but it sure is “M.E.S.S.I.”

It ain’t stagflation, but it sure is “M.E.S.S.I.” - iPad

It’s not runaway inflation, and it’s certainly not stagflation. In fact, the US economy is going through a bout of “M.E.S.S.I.” inflation dynamics – Moderating Expansion with Sticky Supply-driven Inflation – a rare phenomenon where strong, but cooling demand is met by constrained, but accelerating supply, leading to transitory, yet sticky inflation.

Read more

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Research Briefing | Oct 15, 2021

Singapore | Resilient growth prompts an early start to tightening

research briefing image for Resilient growth prompts an early start to tightening

In a surprise move, the Monetary Authority of Singapore today tightened monetary policy by slightly raising the slope of the Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) policy band. A faster-than-expected increase in core CPI and robust Q3 GDP outcome likely prompted the policy shift.

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Research Briefing | Oct 15, 2021

Singapore | Resilient growth prompts an early start to tightening

research briefing image for Resilient growth prompts an early start to tightening

In a surprise move, the Monetary Authority of Singapore today tightened monetary policy by slightly raising the slope of the Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) policy band. A faster-than-expected increase in core CPI and robust Q3 GDP outcome likely prompted the policy shift.

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Research Briefing | Oct 14, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker kicks off October on an optimistic note

US Recovery Tracker kicks off October on an optimistic note - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker slipped to 97.5 in the week ended October 1, down 0.6pts from its post-pandemic high in the previous week. Nonetheless, economic momentum remains buoyant, with four out of the Tracker’s six subcomponents above their pre-pandemic levels.

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Research Briefing | Oct 14, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker kicks off October on an optimistic note

US Recovery Tracker kicks off October on an optimistic note - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker slipped to 97.5 in the week ended October 1, down 0.6pts from its post-pandemic high in the previous week. Nonetheless, economic momentum remains buoyant, with four out of the Tracker’s six subcomponents above their pre-pandemic levels.

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Research Briefing | Oct 14, 2021

US economic resilience amid supply constraints and persistent inflation

Country Economic Forecast United States October 2021 - iPad

The US economy has lost some luster, but demand appears resilient in the face of lingering supply-chain disruptions. With the health situation having improved considerably over the past few weeks, consumer spending is firming and high frequency data points to an acceleration in employment growth. Still, there is no escaping the fact that limited supply and persistent inflation is weighing on activity. As a result, we’ve trimmed our GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppts to 5.4% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022.

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Research Briefing | Oct 14, 2021

US economic resilience amid supply constraints and persistent inflation

Country Economic Forecast United States October 2021 - iPad

The US economy has lost some luster, but demand appears resilient in the face of lingering supply-chain disruptions. With the health situation having improved considerably over the past few weeks, consumer spending is firming and high frequency data points to an acceleration in employment growth. Still, there is no escaping the fact that limited supply and persistent inflation is weighing on activity. As a result, we’ve trimmed our GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppts to 5.4% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022.

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Research Briefing | Oct 14, 2021

Africa | Pandemic-era debt: short-term outlook and implications

Pandemic-era-debt-short-term-outlook-and-implications_Page_1

Necessity and opportunity allowed African issuers to expand their public debt positions markedly since the Covid-19 pandemic hit. The sharp deteriorations in fiscal finances risk however line up with a souring in external conditions.

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Research Briefing | Oct 14, 2021

Africa | Pandemic-era debt: short-term outlook and implications

Pandemic-era-debt-short-term-outlook-and-implications_Page_1

Necessity and opportunity allowed African issuers to expand their public debt positions markedly since the Covid-19 pandemic hit. The sharp deteriorations in fiscal finances risk however line up with a souring in external conditions.

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Future of Construction gives forecasts for global construction to 2030 as well as perspectives on climate-related challenges for the construction industry.

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Research Briefing | Oct 13, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: New York

Metro Economic Forecast New York September 2021 - iPad

Still lagging its peers, New York has recovered only 49% of its lost jobs since the start of the pandemic. Its net job decline of 9.1% from Q1 2020 to Q2 2021 ranks 47th of the top 50 metros. New York is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 of 2023, later than most. New York is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.5% over the five years to 2027, on par with the expected US job growth rate. Industries expected to contribute to the growth include restaurants and drinking places with 23.4% of the total jobs followed by home health care with 20.6% and education with 14.2%. The finance sector is expected to recover in 2022 but then remain flat through 2025.

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Research Briefing | Oct 13, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: New York

Metro Economic Forecast New York September 2021 - iPad

Still lagging its peers, New York has recovered only 49% of its lost jobs since the start of the pandemic. Its net job decline of 9.1% from Q1 2020 to Q2 2021 ranks 47th of the top 50 metros. New York is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 of 2023, later than most. New York is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.5% over the five years to 2027, on par with the expected US job growth rate. Industries expected to contribute to the growth include restaurants and drinking places with 23.4% of the total jobs followed by home health care with 20.6% and education with 14.2%. The finance sector is expected to recover in 2022 but then remain flat through 2025.

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Research Briefing | Oct 13, 2021

Nordic outlook is bright, but downside risks are rising

Nordic webinar - October 2021 - bannerIpad Frame - Nordic-outlook-is-bright-but-downside-risks-are-rising

The Nordic recovery is on track despite some surprises in the Q2 GDP components and rising downside risks. Real goods exports underperformed given the rebound in external demand, reflecting stress in supply chains and input shortages for the region’s trade-sensitive economies.

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Research Briefing | Oct 13, 2021

Nordic outlook is bright, but downside risks are rising

Nordic webinar - October 2021 - bannerIpad Frame - Nordic-outlook-is-bright-but-downside-risks-are-rising

The Nordic recovery is on track despite some surprises in the Q2 GDP components and rising downside risks. Real goods exports underperformed given the rebound in external demand, reflecting stress in supply chains and input shortages for the region’s trade-sensitive economies.

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Research Briefing | Oct 13, 2021

US | Recovery patterns reflect tourism and office-based sector exposure

Ipad Frame-US-Recovery-patterns-reflect-tourism-and-office-based-sector-exposure

US GDP topped its peak pre-pandemic level in Q2, but the pace of the economic recovery was largely unchanged as the Delta variant sapped some of the steam out of the growth engine. GDP has returned to pre-pandemic levels in 38 states, while the rest are expected to surpass their peak by the end of 2021 except for Hawaii and New York, which we expect to do so in 2022.

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Research Briefing | Oct 13, 2021

US | Recovery patterns reflect tourism and office-based sector exposure

Ipad Frame-US-Recovery-patterns-reflect-tourism-and-office-based-sector-exposure

US GDP topped its peak pre-pandemic level in Q2, but the pace of the economic recovery was largely unchanged as the Delta variant sapped some of the steam out of the growth engine. GDP has returned to pre-pandemic levels in 38 states, while the rest are expected to surpass their peak by the end of 2021 except for Hawaii and New York, which we expect to do so in 2022.

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engineering data

This report, commissioned by SAP, takes stock of the company’s economic, social, and environmental impact in 2020, as the company announces a €250 million investment into cloud-based services in the UK over the coming five years.

orange excavator on dirt mound
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Research Briefing | Oct 13, 2021

Australian Infrastructure Market Capacity

Copy of Ipad Frame

Infrastructure Australia releases its first market capacity report today and consensus is clear, there are major challenges ahead securing the skills and materials we need to deliver a large and growing public infrastructure pipeline. 

BIS Oxford Economics worked alongside other analysts, academics and industry professionals to help deliver this report for Infrastructure Australia, and look forward to building on this analysis as the economy navigates the challenges ahead.

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Research Briefing | Oct 13, 2021

Australian Infrastructure Market Capacity

Copy of Ipad Frame

Infrastructure Australia releases its first market capacity report today and consensus is clear, there are major challenges ahead securing the skills and materials we need to deliver a large and growing public infrastructure pipeline. 

BIS Oxford Economics worked alongside other analysts, academics and industry professionals to help deliver this report for Infrastructure Australia, and look forward to building on this analysis as the economy navigates the challenges ahead.

Read more

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Research Briefing | Oct 13, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Los Angeles

Research brifing for us city forecast losangeles

Los Angeles, like New York, has suffered from urban flight that has persisted due to the delta variant. LA has recovered only 44% of its lost jobs since the start of the pandemic, and its net job decline of 8% ranks 45th of the largest 50 metros. Los Angeles is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q1 of 2023. Some industries have seen some growth since the start of the pandemic including couriers and express delivery services which has grown 33.9%, and scientific R&D (+4.2%). LA is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.5% over the five years to 2027, in line with the US average. Industries expected to contribute to growth include social services with 34% of the total jobs, restaurants and drinking places, and arts and entertainment.

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Research Briefing | Oct 13, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Los Angeles

Research brifing for us city forecast losangeles

Los Angeles, like New York, has suffered from urban flight that has persisted due to the delta variant. LA has recovered only 44% of its lost jobs since the start of the pandemic, and its net job decline of 8% ranks 45th of the largest 50 metros. Los Angeles is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q1 of 2023. Some industries have seen some growth since the start of the pandemic including couriers and express delivery services which has grown 33.9%, and scientific R&D (+4.2%). LA is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.5% over the five years to 2027, in line with the US average. Industries expected to contribute to growth include social services with 34% of the total jobs, restaurants and drinking places, and arts and entertainment.

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Research Briefing | Oct 12, 2021

Eurozone | Recovery Tracker suffers a setback at end-September

Why big fiscal deficits and low inflation can coexi (35)-1

Our Recovery Tracker suffered a setback at September’s end, falling 1.1pts to
87.6 after reaching a new pandemic high two weeks earlier. Lower consumption and weaker financial conditions were the main culprits, with the labour market, production, and mobility components falling to a lesser extent.
The health indicator was the only component to advance, rising for the third
consecutive week. With the health situation overall under control and consumer confidence remaining positive, as revealed by the ESI.

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Research Briefing | Oct 12, 2021

Eurozone | Recovery Tracker suffers a setback at end-September

Why big fiscal deficits and low inflation can coexi (35)-1

Our Recovery Tracker suffered a setback at September’s end, falling 1.1pts to
87.6 after reaching a new pandemic high two weeks earlier. Lower consumption and weaker financial conditions were the main culprits, with the labour market, production, and mobility components falling to a lesser extent.
The health indicator was the only component to advance, rising for the third
consecutive week. With the health situation overall under control and consumer confidence remaining positive, as revealed by the ESI.

Read more

Blog|12 October 2021

COP26: What ‘net zero’ means for ports

COP26: What ‘net zero’ means for ports

COP26—the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference—will bring together countries with the aim of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by mid-century. Reaching this target presents businesses with challenges and opportunities that will need to be integrated into their strategic planning and long-term investment decisions.

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Research Briefing | Oct 12, 2021

Eurozone | Consumption to drive the recovery, but winter risks loom

Eurozone | Consumption to drive the recovery, but winter risks loom

Consumer spending took over as the driver of recovery in Q2. We expect similar gains in Q3, leaving spending 3% below pre-pandemic levels. However, the easy gains from reopening are now mostly exhausted and we expect the consumer recovery to slow over the winter. But although the balance of risk is shifting to the downside, we still foresee strong spending gains in 2022.
High-frequency data point to strong momentum in consumer spending. Tourism enjoyed a solid season, which is likely to extend into autumn. Mobility remains strong and social consumption activities saw a solid pick-up in recent months. Our Recovery Tracker shows consumer spending will remain robust in Q3.

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Research Briefing | Oct 12, 2021

Eurozone | Consumption to drive the recovery, but winter risks loom

Eurozone | Consumption to drive the recovery, but winter risks loom

Consumer spending took over as the driver of recovery in Q2. We expect similar gains in Q3, leaving spending 3% below pre-pandemic levels. However, the easy gains from reopening are now mostly exhausted and we expect the consumer recovery to slow over the winter. But although the balance of risk is shifting to the downside, we still foresee strong spending gains in 2022.
High-frequency data point to strong momentum in consumer spending. Tourism enjoyed a solid season, which is likely to extend into autumn. Mobility remains strong and social consumption activities saw a solid pick-up in recent months. Our Recovery Tracker shows consumer spending will remain robust in Q3.

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Research Briefing | Oct 12, 2021

Pandemic disrupts APAC FDI, but prospects remain positive

research briefing for Pandemic disrupts FDI, but prospects remain positive

We believe prospects for FDI inflows into APAC over the medium term remain strong, even though pandemic-driven supply disruptions and uncertainties over the pace of recovery may see some firms rethink their supply chains.

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Research Briefing | Oct 12, 2021

Pandemic disrupts APAC FDI, but prospects remain positive

research briefing for Pandemic disrupts FDI, but prospects remain positive

We believe prospects for FDI inflows into APAC over the medium term remain strong, even though pandemic-driven supply disruptions and uncertainties over the pace of recovery may see some firms rethink their supply chains.

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Research Briefing | Oct 11, 2021

APAC | Indian cities will lead APAC’s city GDP growth rankings in 2022

Asia Pacific Cities and Regions Outlook September 2021

Across APAC, many cities have similar stories to tell—of 2021 economic growth being frustrated by the reimposition of lockdowns, and of recovery therefore being stretched-out well into 2022.

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Research Briefing | Oct 11, 2021

APAC | Indian cities will lead APAC’s city GDP growth rankings in 2022

Asia Pacific Cities and Regions Outlook September 2021

Across APAC, many cities have similar stories to tell—of 2021 economic growth being frustrated by the reimposition of lockdowns, and of recovery therefore being stretched-out well into 2022.

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Australia Climate Change
Blog|8 October 2021

A greener Australian economy is becoming inevitable

Sean Langcake
Sean Langcake
Head of Macroeconomic Forecasting, OE Australia
A greener Australian economy is becoming inevitable

Policy inaction has left Australia a laggard among advanced economies in adopting lower net-emissions targets. But domestic climate policy could be about to change. With the Glasgow Climate Change Conference looming and pressure mounting on multiple fronts, the Morrison government is displaying a growing acceptance that a net-zero emissions target will need to be adopted.

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Research Briefing | Oct 8, 2021

UK | Households start to feel the squeeze

UK | Households start to feel the squeeze

Government support schemes have been hugely successful in mitigating the financial consequences of the pandemic to consumers. But at the same time this support is being withdrawn, household spending power is being squeezed by a surge in inflation.
Rising oil and gas prices mean we now forecast CPI inflation will reach 4.5% in early-2022. We continue to expect the rise to prove transitory, but we will lower our forecast for GDP growth in 2022. And though, ultimately, we don’t expect the MPC to follow through on recent hawkish rhetoric, a rate hike is a live risk.

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Research Briefing | Oct 8, 2021

UK | Households start to feel the squeeze

UK | Households start to feel the squeeze

Government support schemes have been hugely successful in mitigating the financial consequences of the pandemic to consumers. But at the same time this support is being withdrawn, household spending power is being squeezed by a surge in inflation.
Rising oil and gas prices mean we now forecast CPI inflation will reach 4.5% in early-2022. We continue to expect the rise to prove transitory, but we will lower our forecast for GDP growth in 2022. And though, ultimately, we don’t expect the MPC to follow through on recent hawkish rhetoric, a rate hike is a live risk.

Read more

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Research Briefing | Oct 8, 2021

India | Vaccine surge to energize consumption in 2022

report image for Vaccine surge to energize consumption in 2022

We still think India’s recovery will be subdued in H2 2021, despite a significant pick-up in vaccinations from August. The uptick in inoculations is mostly first doses, and it will take time for second doses to be administered. As per our estimates, around 40% of the population will be fully vaccinated by end 2021.

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Research Briefing | Oct 8, 2021

India | Vaccine surge to energize consumption in 2022

report image for Vaccine surge to energize consumption in 2022

We still think India’s recovery will be subdued in H2 2021, despite a significant pick-up in vaccinations from August. The uptick in inoculations is mostly first doses, and it will take time for second doses to be administered. As per our estimates, around 40% of the population will be fully vaccinated by end 2021.

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