Research Briefing | Oct 13, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: Los Angeles

Research brifing for us city forecast losangeles

Los Angeles, like New York, has suffered from urban flight that has persisted due to the delta variant. LA has recovered only 44% of its lost jobs since the start of the pandemic, and its net job decline of 8% ranks 45th of the largest 50 metros. Los Angeles is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q1 of 2023. Some industries have seen some growth since the start of the pandemic including couriers and express delivery services which has grown 33.9%, and scientific R&D (+4.2%). LA is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.5% over the five years to 2027, in line with the US average. Industries expected to contribute to growth include social services with 34% of the total jobs, restaurants and drinking places, and arts and entertainment.

What you will learn:

  • Los Angeles’s large film sector has recovered 39% of the lost 50,000 jobs at the trough of the pandemic, for a net decline of 22%. It is expected to fully recover in Q4 2022.
  • LA is also largely dependent on tourism. The sector accounts for 26% of the total net job losses. Orange County, home to Disneyland and other theme parks, has recovered more than 66% of its lost leisure and hospitality jobs, while LA County has recovered 52%. This sector is expected to recovery by Q1 2023 in both counties.
  • Los Angeles’s office sector losses account for another 24% of the total. The office sector is expected to recover in Q4 of 2022 and grow 0.4% per year from 2023 to 2027. 

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