Untangling the different construction measures
The value of Work Done (also known as value Put-In-Place) is the total money paid to construction companies for activity they have undertaken. This is the key indicator used in Oxford Economics’ Construction Services. It most closely relates to construction businesses’ turnover, and as such cleanly maps into budgeting/planning exercises. Furthermore, for businesses involved in the sector’s supply chain, they can easily identify when and where construction firms will need their inputs.
Untangling the different construction measures
The value of Work Done (also known as value Put-In-Place) is the total money paid to construction companies for activity they have undertaken. This is the key indicator used in Oxford Economics’ Construction Services. It most closely relates to construction businesses’ turnover, and as such cleanly maps into budgeting/planning exercises. Furthermore, for businesses involved in the sector’s supply chain, they can easily identify when and where construction firms will need their inputs.
The acceleration in nominal wage growth rates in Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies over the past couple of quarters has sparked growing fears of wage-price spirals taking hold in the region. We think such fears are overblown. That said, while we don’t expect the self reinforcing cycles of higher inflation and wage growth to persist, earnings growth is likely to remain elevated, keeping core inflation in the CEE higher for longer. Several factors mitigate the probability of wages keeping pace with – not to mention exceeding – inflation in the near-term.
The MENA region is a key player in the energy sector as a large producer of oil and gas, but over time, it has also come to be a significant energy consumer. Growth and development in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries have fuelled an appetite for energy, much of it satisfied by oil and natural gas. This carbon-intensive mix has been enabled by low fossil-fuel energy prices thanks to generous government subsidies. Removing subsidies is politically challenging and difficult in a high-price fossil fuel environment. 
Our modelling suggests incorporating owner-occupied housing costs would lower eurozone headline inflation from Q3 2022 by 0.3ppts, with negative contributions persisting into 2023. Owner-occupied housing costs (OOH) are excluded from the eurozone’s key inflation measure (HICP), but one of the ECB’s flagship measures from last year’s strategy review was to better account for them when setting monetary policy.
After the West and its allies imposed sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine, President Putin announced a radical rehaul of the country’s development strategy, with a pivot towards Asia. For now, though, Russia is stuck with a gas pipeline system built to supply Europe. If a resolution to the European gas crisis is not reached, then a lot of Russian gas may remain in the ground.
We have expanded our climate transmission channels on the Global Economic Model to include more sub-Saharan African economies. Through scenario analysis, we can better understand the climate risks faced by Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia.