Research Briefing | Oct 13, 2021

US | Recovery patterns reflect tourism and office-based sector exposure

Ipad Frame-US-Recovery-patterns-reflect-tourism-and-office-based-sector-exposure

US GDP topped its peak pre-pandemic level in Q2, but the pace of the economic recovery was largely unchanged as the Delta variant sapped some of the steam out of the growth engine. GDP has returned to pre-pandemic levels in 38 states, while the rest are expected to surpass their peak by the end of 2021 except for Hawaii and New York, which we expect to do so in 2022.

What you will learn:

  • At the end of Q2, the US had recovered 63% of the jobs lost at the depth of the Covid19 downturn. Only two states—Idaho and Utah—have recovered all their lost jobs from the pandemic, and five more are expected to do so by the end of 2021.
  • The percentage of the population fully vaccinated stagnated at 54% by the end of September, and caseloads rose in states with low vaccination rates.
  • While the recent surge in COVID cases slowed the pace of growth in the economy, the long-term outlook remains favorable.

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